Assessing whether George Kittle can lead 49ers to a win over Atlanta

George Kittle returns for the 49ers against Atlanta, and not a moment too soon. In his absence, the running game has been last in the league in yards per carry and has sputtered in the red zone. In this matchup, Kittle will need to jump-start the 49ers attack.

49ers on Offense

San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85). / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

Kittle is arguably the Niners’ best blocker, a key receiver, and their top red zone weapon. It’s the latter where he can have a game-changing impact, as the Falcons’ lone weakness on defense is in the red zone. Atlanta’s defense gives up a touchdown on two-thirds of the drives they face inside the 20, tied for 24th in the league.

The Niners hope Kittle can also give life to their moribund run game. The wide zone is predicated on setting edges to free the back. Christian McCaffrey is one of four running backs in the last 50 years to have a long of 15 or under in the first six games of a season, a stat from AP’s Josh Dubow.

The hope is that the Niners can finally set the edge and free McCaffrey. Atlanta struggles to get tackles for loss in the run game, one of the weaker teams in the league at run stuff rate, so McCaffrey will have an opportunity in this game. Rookie Jordan Watkins is finally active; he could get a chance to break a run open on a jet sweep.

Where the Falcons are formidable is in rushing the passer. They are the league’s most frequent blitzing team at a rate of 39.9%. They blitzed Buffalo’s Josh Allen at a 56% rate last week. Atlanta mixes in a five-man front and sends its linebackers frequently. Their speed at linebacker is the best in the league.

The Niners will need to counter with a quick passing game, relying on Mac Jones’ ability to get the ball out and find receivers before the Atlanta rush gets home. A key for Jones is to protect the football and not throw into coverage when pressure is on top of him.

Atlanta on Offense

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7). / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

After Fred Warner got hurt last week, Tampa attacked the middle of the field and exposed the Niners’ difficulty communicating. The Bucs increased their throws in the middle by 50% above their season average against the Niners, and over 50% with pre-snap motion. 49er confusion led to a blown assignment and an uncovered receiver scoring a touchdown.

The Niner defense will be tested on both aspects in this game. Atlanta is the league-leader in pre-snap motion, and quarterback Michael Penix was one of the best in the NFL last year in efficiency throwing middle.

Bijan Robinson is tied for first in the league in rushing yards per carry at 5.8 and has the longest gain from scrimmage at 81 yards. He also has 24 receptions with a long of 69 yards.

The Niner defense has struggled to stop teams with speed. Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne rushed for over 124 yards against San Francisco. Robinson is an elite speed back, he torched the Buffalo defense for 170 yards rushing and another 68 in the air last week.

Drake London is the go-to receiving target, averaging nine catches and over 130 yards per game in his last two matchups. Tight end Kyle Pitts is an X-factor as the Niners now miss the best coverage linebacker in the league with Warner out. Tatum Bethune and Dee Winters are both vulnerable in pass coverage, as is rookie safety Marques Sigle.

Nickel Upton Stout got hurt in practice and is questionable, as is starting corner Renardo Green. The Niners will probably need to start Chase Lucas and possibly Darrell Luter Jr.

Without Nick Bosa, the 49ers’ pass rush is among the league’s worst, just seven sacks in six games and a low blitz rate. Penix, with time, is one of the most accurate deep throwers in the league.

Prediction (3-3)

San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Kittle will elevate the Niners running game and efficiency in the red zone. Now that Warner is out, the Niners will have to rely on the offense to step up and maintain pace with Atlanta. Having Kittle back makes that possible, and he typically shines in prime time.

The problem is the Niner defense. Can they contain Bijan? Limit London? Cover Pitts? Get to Penix? No, to all of it. Can they adjust to life without Warner and communicate cleanly with no blown assignments against the league’s most frequent pre-snap motion offense? Maybe, but a week may not be enough time to lock that down.

The Niners will be relying on Atlanta to stop themselves. The Falcons can do that; they are a young and inconsistent team on the road in a short week. However, the Niners defense doesn’t sack the quarterback, create interceptions, or match up against speed. If the Falcons team that took out Buffalo shows up, the Niner defense is over-matched.

Atlanta 27-20