The Texas A&M Forest Service anticipates high wildfire danger across much of Texas on Monday but expects a reduced threat by Tuesday as gusty winds subside.
Texas A&M Forest Service
Although San Antonio can’t declare that fall weather has arrived just yet, we are seeing some signs of autumn emerging. This week, the city’s afternoon temperatures will continue to reach levels above normal, largely in the upper 80s and lower 90s, but they are slowly coming down as cold fronts become more frequent.
After the passage of a cold front this weekend, predawn temperatures across the eastern Hill Country and along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor Monday morning were shaping up to be in the 50s, with potentially a few readings in the upper 40s in some low-lying areas, according to the National Weather Service.
San Antonio on Monday should continue to have plenty of sunshine, as it has had for much of the past six weeks, with temperatures reaching 92 degrees. That’s about 10 degrees above normal for Oct. 20.
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Blustery east winds of 5 to 10 mph will become warmer south-southwest winds in the afternoon with gusts as strong as 20 mph. At night, skies over the Alamo City will remain mostly clear as overnight temperatures cool down to about 67 degrees before dawn Tuesday.
In this extended forecast for San Antonio from the National Weather Service, dew point temperatures — which are related to levels of water vapor in the air — drop significantly with the arrival of a dry air mass behind a cold front Sunday and another front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
National Weather Service
Dry cold front Tuesday
Another cold front in Texas could briefly depress temperatures but we still won’t see any significant rainfall from it.
“A trough (of low atmospheric pressure) to the north sends another cold front into the area on Tuesday,” the weather service said in forecast posted online Sunday. “It appears moisture recovery will be minimal Monday night, and… this next front is currently forecast to be dry for almost all areas.”
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Ahead of the cold front, San Antonio on Tuesday should be sunny as usual, with afternoon temperatures reaching 91 degrees. Southwest winds blowing at 5 to 10 mph out of Mexico will become cooler north-northeast breezes in the afternoon, forecasters said.
In the evening, skies will stay mostly clear, but the north-northeast winds will kick up to around 10 mph, with gusts as strong as 20 mph. Overnight and predawn temperatures early Wednesday could be as low as 64 degrees.
Afternoon temperatures could climb into the lower 90s across South-Central Texas by 4 p.m. Monday, according to the National Blend of Models, a composite forecast model.
National Blend of Models/Pivotal Weather
“Southerly return flow quickly reestablishes over the region by Wednesday and low-level moisture increases over the area Thursday, when a few streamer showers could be squeezed out,” the weather service said.
For San Antonio on Wednesday, that basically means the return of moisture-rich southeast winds out of the Gulf of Mexico. But the cooler air mass behind Tuesday’s front also means afternoon temperatures will stay below 86 degrees.
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Thanks to the increased atmospheric moisture, skies Wednesday night will be partly cloudy, as overnight temperatures remain above 67 degrees.
San Antonio on Thursday should continue to be mostly sunny, with afternoon temperatures rebounding to 90 degrees. South-southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph could include gusts as strong as 20 mph. That evening, partly cloudy skies return as do nighttime lows in the upper 60s.
“Global models are in relatively good agreement about an upper-level trough (of low pressure) moving through the southern Plains Thursday into Friday, although details on timing of another cold front into the region and rain chances are lower confidence,” the weather service said. “These details will be refined through the upcoming week.”
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