2025 Swiss Indoors Basel: Baez [44th] vs. Shapovalov [23rd] Prediction, Odds and Match Preview

In the Swiss Indoors Basel Round of 32 on Monday, we have a matchup of No. 23-ranked Denis Shapovalov versus No. 44 Sebastian Baez.

Shapovalov is favored (-800) in this match against Baez (+500).

Tennis odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Sunday at 6:35 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Sebastian Baez vs. Denis Shapovalov matchup info

• Tournament: Swiss Indoors Basel
• Round: Round of 32
• Date: Monday, October 20
• Court Surface: Hard

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Baez vs. Shapovalov Prediction

Based on the implied probility from the moneyline, Baez has an 88.9% to win.

Baez vs. Shapovalov Betting Odds

• Baez’s odds to win match: +500
• Shapovalov’s odds to win match: -800

Baez vs. Shapovalov matchup performance & stats

• Baez is 3-9 on hard courts this year.
• Baez is 93-for-147 in service games on hard courts (winning percentage of 63.3%) and 40-for-145 in return games (27.6%).
• Baez has won 45.1% of break points on hard courts so far this year (37 out of 82, which ranks 102nd).
• In his most recent tournament (the Rolex Shanghai Masters), Baez was eliminated by Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune 5-7, 4-6 on October 3, in the Round of 64.
• Shapovalov has registered a 21-11 record on hard courts this year, clinching two tournament victories.
• Shapovalov has won 75.2% of his service games on hard courts, and 32.4% of his return games.
• Shapovalov is seventh in break points won on hard courts, converting 108 of 226 (47.8%).
• In his last tournament (the Stockholm Open) on October 18, Shapovalov matched up with Casper Ruud in the semifinals and was defeated 3-6, 4-6.