The Club World Cup
champions look to climb the UEFA
Champions League standings after getting off the mark against
Benfica. We look ahead to Wednesday’s clash with our Chelsea vs
Ajax prediction and preview.
Chelsea
vs Ajax: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites at
Stamford Bridge, where they are assigned a 71.2% win probability to
Ajax’s 12.6%. - Ajax have lost their last five matches in major European
competitions, and the Eredivisie giants could lose six in a row for
the first time since September 1989. - Chelsea are the only side yet to give a single minute to a
player aged 30+ in the UEFA Champions League this season. Only two
English sides have gone three or more games without fielding a
player in their 30s – Liverpool in 2002-03 and Tottenham in 2016-17
(both six).
When Chelsea
were beaten 3-1 by Brighton and Hove Albion in late September, the
Blues had gone almost a month without a Premier
League or UEFA Champions League victory and the pressure
appeared to be building on head coach Enzo Maresca.
However, a run of three straight victories either side of the
international break, against Benfica in Europe and Liverpool and
Nottingham Forest domestically, has them back on track ahead of
Wednesday’s meeting with Ajax.
Chelsea brought about the end of Ange Postecoglou’s short-lived
reign at the City Ground on Saturday, winning 3-0 with goals from
Josh
Acheampong, Pedro
Neto and Reece
James. Nineteen-year-old Acheampong is the second teenager to
score for Chelsea in the Premier League this season, following
Estêvão’s winner against Liverpool, making the Blues the first team
to have multiple teenage scorers this term.
And their young guns have shouldered plenty of responsibility in
the Champions League. Indeed, Chelsea are the only team yet to give
a single minute to a player aged 30 or older in the competition
this season. Only two English sides have gone three or more games
without fielding a player in their 30s – Liverpool in 2002-03 and
Tottenham in 2016-17 (both six).
Chelsea’s league-phase campaign started with a 3-1 defeat at
Bayern Munich, but their narrow win over Benfica maintained their
imperious home form in Europe’s elite competition.
Chelsea have lost just two of their last 12 Champions League
matches at Stamford Bridge (nine wins, one draw), both of which
were against Real Madrid in the quarter-finals in 2021-22 and
2022-23.
The Blues are unbeaten in their last 12 group- or league-stage
games at home (eight wins, four draws) since losing to Valencia
under Frank Lampard in September 2019.
Enzo
Fernández could return after missing the win over Forest. The
Argentine’s regular midfield partner, Moisés
Caicedo, has made nine tackles in the Champions League this
season, with only Eintracht Frankfurt’s Nathaniel Brown (11) and
Copenhagen’s Lukas Lerager (10) making more.
But Cole
Palmer is still out injured, and Chelsea will also be without
fellow forward João
Pedro, who must serve a one-match European ban after being sent
off against Benfica. One of the Brazilian’s six previous major
European goals was netted against Ajax, for Brighton in the UEFA
Europa League in September 2023.
While Chelsea are 18th in the 36-team table, Ajax are second
from bottom, with only Kazakh champions Kairat below them after
defeats to Inter (0-2) and Marseille (0-4). Ajax are also fourth in
the Eredivisie table following a damaging 2-0 loss to AZ Alkmaar on
Saturday.
Head coach John Heitinga could now make a piece of unwanted
Champions League history. He is one of four men to lose his first
two games in the competition as both a player and a manager at a
single club, alongside Mark van Bommel at PSV, Ivan Leko at Club
Brugge and Krunoslav Jurcic at Dinamo Zagreb.
Nobody has ever lost their first three Champions League matches
with one club as both a player and a coach, and Heitinga could
become the first.
Though Ajax were trounced by Marseille on Matchday 2, there was
one positive to take as they gave Jorthy Mokio a Champions League
debut at the age of 17 years and 214 days. That made him the
second-youngest player to represent Ajax in the competition, and
the 52nd teenager to do so – the most of any club.
Chelsea
vs Ajax Head-to-Head
This will be the third European meeting between Chelsea and
Ajax, having previously met twice in the group stage of the 2019-20
Champions League.
The Blues won 1-0 in Amsterdam that season, before the teams
drew 4-4 in the return fixture at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were 4-1
down in that game, with Tammy Abraham and Kepa Arrizabalaga both
scoring own goals, but red cards for Daley Blind and Joël Veltman
helped them recover to earn a point.
Ajax are winless in their last 11 major European matches against
English teams (two draws, nine defeats) since a 1-0 win over
Tottenham in April 2019, in a Champions League semi-final tie that
they memorably lost due to a Lucas Moura hat-trick in the second
leg.
Ajax have failed to score a single goal in any of their last
five such games, since a Mohammed Kudus goal against Liverpool in
September 2022.
The Dutch giants have also lost their last five games in major
European competitions (three in last season’s Europa League, two in
the Champions League this campaign). They have not lost six such
games in a row since doing so between April 1988 and September
1989.
This will be the seventh time that Chelsea have faced a team who
are on a five-game losing run in Europe, and the Blues have won the
previous six by an aggregate score of 14-0.
The only English teams to lose against a side on such a run are
Manchester City in 1970, against Linfield in the Cup Winners’ Cup,
and Manchester United in 2019, against Astana in the Europa
League.
Chelsea
vs Ajax Prediction
The Opta
supercomputer makes Chelsea strong favourites for Wednesday’s
game, assigning them a 71.2% chance of victory.
Ajax were only victorious in 12.6% of the supercomputer’s 10,000
data-led simulations, with 16.2% finishing level.
With a 5% chance of lifting the trophy, Chelsea are the model’s
eighth favourites to win the Champions League, while they make the
last 16 in 79% of projections. Ajax only do so in 2.7%, while they
fail to even make the knockout-stage play-offs in 87.5%.
Chelsea
vs Ajax Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Trevoh
Chalobah, Jorrel Hato, Marc Cucurella, Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo,
Pedro Neto, Facundo Buonanotte, Alejandro Garnacho, Tyrique
George.
Head Coach: Enzo Maresca
Ajax: Vítezslav Jaros, Lucas Rosa, Ko Itakura,
Youri Baas, Jorthy Mokio, Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Kenneth
Taylor, Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Oscar Gloukh.
Head Coach: John Heitinga
Opta
Power Rankings
The
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams.
This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the
worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the
world.
Ahead of kick-off at Stamford Bridge, here is the Opta Power
Ranking for both sides.
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