Rockets at Thunder predictions: odds, expert picks, recent stats, trends and best bets for October 21
Its Banner Night in OKC as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Thunder receive their championship rings and raise a banner to the rafters at Paycom Center prior to their game against Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets.
This matchup on NBC and Peacock pits one of the league’s al-time great scorers in Durant against his former team, which is led by SGA, the reigning league MVP. While the Thunder are without Jalen Williams (wrist), their elite defense and well-tuned offense will be put to the test against a formidable new-look and long Rockets’ squad that features an imposing frontcourt of Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., and Steven Adams. Throw in Amen Thompson and you can expect a defensive battle and a physical game in what promises to be an emotional and high stakes start to the new NBA season.
Lets dive into the matchup and see where the numbers lead us.
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Game Details and How to watch the Rockets vs. Thunder live
- Date: Tuesday, October 21, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM EST
- Site: Paycom Center
- City: Oklahoma City, OK
- Network/Streaming: NBC / Peacock
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Game odds for the Rockets at the Thunder
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Houston Rockets (+240), Oklahoma City Thunder (-298)
- Spread: Thunder -7.5
- Total: 226.5 points
That gives the Thunder an implied team point total of 111.93, and the Thunder115.84.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups for the Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder
Rockets
G Kevin Durant (2024-25: 62GP, 36.5min/gm, 26.6ppg, 6rebs/gm, 4.2 assists/gm)
G Amen Thompson (2024-25: 69GP, 32.2min/gm, 14.1ppg, 8.2rebs/gm, 3.8 assists/gm)
F Jabari Smith Jr. (2024-25: 57GP, 30.1min/gm, 12.2ppg, 7rebs/gm)
F Alperin Sengun (2024-25: 76GP, 31.5min/gm, 19.1ppg, 10.3 reb/gm, 4.9 assists/gm)
C Steven Adams (2024-25: 58GP, 13.7 mins/gm, 3.9ppg, 5.6 reb/gm)
Thunder
G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2024-25: 76GP, 34.2mins/gm, 32.7ppg, 6.4 assists/gm, 5.0 rebounds/gm)
G Luguentz Dort (2024-25: 71GP, 10.1ppg, 4.1 rebs/gm, 1.6 assists/gm)
F Alex Caruso (2024-25: 54GP, 7.1pts/gm, 2.9 rebs/gm, 2.9 rebounds /gm, 2.8 assists/gm)
F Chet Holmgren (2024-25: 32GP, 15ppg, 8.0 rebs/gm, 2.2 blocks/gm)
C Isaiah Hartenstein (2024-25: 57GP, 11.2ppg, 10.7 reb/gm, 3.8 assists/gm)
Important stats, trends and insights ahead of Rockets at Thunder on Tuesday
- The Thunder’s lowest-scoring game in the franchise’s history came in 2014 when they were held to a total of just 65 points by the Rockets
- The Thunder’s highest-scoring game in the franchise’s history also was against the Rockets when they poured in 153 points in a 153-121 win.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will attempt to become the first back-to-back winner of the NBA MVP honor since Nikola Jokic in 2021-22.
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): Houston Rockets +7.5
Rockets electing for an all-big starting lineup which looked excellent in limited minutes in the preseason, should test the amazing Thunder defense and present serious issues for the offense, particularly if Jalen Williams is unavailable. Fair should be +4.5 in that case.
Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick): Luka Doncic to lead the NBA in Scoring (+295)
The NBA returns tonight — and for the first time, it’s back on NBC and Peacock, which just feels right. So let’s celebrate with a season-long wager: who will lead the league in scoring?
Last year’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+170), took home that honor, and he opens as the betting favorite again. Right behind him are Giannis Antetokounmpo (+250) and Luka Dončić (+295).
Here’s the case against Shai: when Chet Holmgren was hurt to start last season, SGA had to carry the load and put up monster numbers. Once Chet returned, Shai’s scoring dipped slightly as OKC began to spread the wealth.
Luka, on the other hand, is going to shoulder a massive offensive burden — especially early in the season. With his co-star sidelined at least through mid-November (and maybe longer), he could easily pace the league through the first few months.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Rockets & Thunder game
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Houston Rockets +7.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 226.5.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar!
If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
– Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
– Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
– Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
– Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
