After a win over Utah in which BYU only trailed for three minutes, the Cougars are a perfect 7-0 and positioned to move up in the polls. The Cougars have to immediately turn the page to get ready for a roag game at Iowa State. The Cyclones are coming off a bye and looking to regroup after losing two consecutive games. This game is critical for BYU to maintain its lead in the conference title race before a brutal November slate. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Iowa State and updated BYU’s projected win total for the 2025 season.
ESPN FPI expects a very close game. FPI gives BYU a 54.3% chance to beat the Cyclones in Ames.
In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.1-1.9. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI. However, FPI expects BYU to be in a lot of tossup games over the next month.
For the purposes of this article, we’ll define a “special season” as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 71.3% chance to win 10 games or more – up from 54.9% last week – and a 7.4% chance to go undefeated.
8 wins or more – 99.4%
9 wins or more – 93.5%
10 wins or more – 71.3%
11 wins or more – 34.6%
12 wins (undefeated) – 7.4%
The game at Iowa State is critical for BYU’s chances to have a special season. A win over the Cyclones would increase BYU’s chances to win 10 or more games to 87.2%.
The BYU-Utah game hardly changed FPI’s opinion on either team. BYU stayed at no. 19 and Utah dropped one spot to no. 15. Texas Tech fell to no. 12 with a loss at Arizona State.
BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI.
In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is still clear front-runner according to FPI. However, the Red Raiders lost their massive lead (according to FPI) with their loss at ASU. The Red Raiders also have a favorable conference slate the rest of the way. BYU is their only real test remaining on the schedule. BYU is second in line behind the Red Raiders. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.
BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with more than a 15% chance to win the league according to FPI, and only three teams in the league have better than a 10% chance to win the conference.
BYU has a 52.0% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That’s the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.
