Fantasy Basketball Sleepers and Busts: Reed Sheppard, Grayson Allen Among Those With Value Changes in Week 1
In fantasy basketball, you want to build a super team, but most leagues are head-to-head and thus decided by a string of matchups instead of overall output over 82 games.
The names below are Week 1 players who have a drastic shift in value for the first week of the scoring (October 21-26). I actually like the two fades long term and am a little indifferent on the Week 1 sleepers as the season progresses, but a win this week means as much as one in March, so let’s start the observations.
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Fantasy Basketball Week 1 Busts
Reed Sheppard (HOU, G)
The third overall pick in the 2024 draft is poised to have a breakout season for a Rockets squad that is dreaming of a deep playoff run. The odds of him being not only a force in the 3PM department but also a sneaky source of plus-positional rebounding numbers with solid percentages across the board are good.
But for Week 1?
I want to see his exact role in this Houston offense before rolling him out there. They added Kevin Durant this offseason to help the flow of their offense, and while that’s a net positive for all involved, he can stop ball movement at times, which puts the counting numbers of secondary options like Sheppard at risk.
Combine that with an unknown distribution of responsibilities with Aaron Holliday, and there’s much more risk than reward in going the way of the 21-year-old in your first matchup of the season.
You’ll get to use him, don’t worry. I expect Sheppard to be a lineup staple when this offense settles into defined roles. That said, a two-game week with an OKC matchup and rotational moving pieces makes him a stayaway for most leagues’ first wave of games.
VJ Edgecombe (PHI, G)
Speaking of young players that have the potential to determine the fate of your roster, Edgecombe could well prove to be in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors when all is said and done this season.
But like Sheppard, we are looking at a two-game slate. Sheppard has the addition of Durant to navigate, and while the 76ers didn’t add a star, a healthy Joel Embiid feels like that.
Read More: VJ Edgecombe Fantasy Outlook
Edgecombe’s usage will grow with time, and he should be a target in drafts. This week, however, I’d rather side with certainty. We saw some concerns about finishing around the rim with him last season at Baylor, and while the jumpshot is passable, there’s no denying that there is some streakiness in this profile.
Sit this week out and be ready to lock him in sooner than later (they have four games in Week 2, including their first back-to-back and two very favorable matchups).
Visual alert: The man is wearing No. 77. It’s not great on the eyes for a 6’5”, 180-pound slasher. You’ve been warned.
Fantasy Basketball Week 1 Sleepers
Dennis Schröder (SAC, G)
It may seem that Dennis Schröder has played for most teams in the NBA, but he’s now calling Sacramento home. With De’Aaron Fox sidelined to start the season as he recovers from the hamstring injury, he profiles as a reasonable points, assists, steals, and 3PM option.
I don’t love the construction of this team, but cheap usage is cheap usage, and that’s what we are looking at here. In addition to a 30+ minute role that appears locked in for this three-set of games, Schroder faces two of the three worst defenses from the 2024-25 season.
The journeyman recently turned 32 years and probably doesn’t hold much value in two months, but again, this is a week-to-week game. For his career, he’s been good for roughly 14 points and five assists: I think he tops both of those marks in Week 1, which’ll be usable in average-to-deep formats.
Grayson Allen (PHX, G)
Another bad team, increased opportunity guy. Grayson Allen has developed nicely since his time at Duke, but his primary skill remains the long ball (career: 41.4% on 5.1 attempts per game).
The Suns will need as much complementary scoring as they can get this season, next to Devin Booker, and they targeted Jalen Green in the Durant trade to do just that.
That’s a reasonable plan given what we’ve seen from Green in the past, but a hamstring injury late in the preseason has him set to miss this week, and Allen has been confirmed as the starter.
Phoenix has three games on the slate this week, two of which are against ordinary defenses. I don’t love the Clippers matchup or the fact that there is a road back-to-back, but if we are getting in the range of 100 minutes from a player with a defined skill in a shortened week, he’s hitting my lineup in most spots.
