Are the Indiana Pacers in store for a ‘gap year?’ Where they stand in NBA power rankings, predictions
You’ve heard about the “gap year” — the time immediately after high school or college when someone goes to “find themselves” by traveling, volunteering or undertaking an unusual project.
Some NBA experts believe the Indiana Pacers are embarking on such a season in 2025-26. Getting to the NBA Finals again will be difficult, with Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) out for the season and Myles Turner off to the Milwaukee Bucks. However, the Pacers won’t give up on competing in the Eastern Conference.
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NBA predictions, power rankings: Will Indiana Pacers make the playoffs in 2026?
“It’s ironic now, but the Pacers had the second biggest injury advantage last year in the regular season, gaining plus-5.6 wins due to their own injuries relative to opponents’. Some regression from that was bound to happen, and they obviously won’t replicate that with Haliburton out for the year.
“The Pacers play fast, in general, which helps Pascal Siakam, and it should help Bennedict Mathurin.
“I’ve been a Mathurin advocate for a while, so I want to believe in the generally high level of play he has shown in the preseason. If he continues that, and the remaining Pacers stay healthy, their postseason chances are clearly higher.”
“Tanking doesn’t really seem to be in the cards for Indiana, despite the absence of Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season. They’ll play hard and they have an identity, but how far can that get them? It’s time for players like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith to prove they can handle larger roles, while Pascal Siakam must remain his usual, steady self.”
“Yes, the Pacers will miss Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) and Myles Turner (Bucks). It’s a huge letdown that eliminates Indiana’s ceiling. Indiana has one of the least inspiring center situations in the league, and it’ll be missing Haliburton, the battery pack and late-game killer. But the Pacers play in the right conference, have the right head coach and still boast quality depth at every other non-center position. I expect Indiana to still control the pace of games, get Pascal Siakam in spots to lead the scoring and to play with the kind of edge that marked the second half of its games last season. In the regular season, that should be more than enough to stay afloat. In the playoffs? They’ll likely go out quietly.”
Kevin Pelton, ESPN: 45.9 projected wins, 4th most in the Eastern Conference
“Even though former Indiana center Myles Turner — now with the Bucks — will be difficult to replace, this number feels shockingly low. The Pacers were still competitive last season when they were without Tyrese Haliburton, who will miss the 2025-26 campaign with a torn right Achilles. And Indiana’s replacements at center — most notably stretch big man Jay Huff — do rate better than conventional wisdom. I’m not confident Indiana can finish in the same spot in the standings as last season, but I like the Pacers’ chances of being better than .500.”
“The absence of Tyrese Haliburton, who went down with a torn Achilles in Game 7 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, might even make this a gap year that results in a high draft pick in 2026.
“Indiana may well have the best coach in the league in Rick Carlisle, though. It still has the rugged supporting cast that surrounded Haliburton, including players who may be capable of scaling up, such as Andrew Nembhard and Bennedict Mathurin. There’s still a bona fide star on the roster in Pascal Siakam.”
“Losing Haliburton means more Aaron Nesmith, which is fine. Losing Myles Turner, on the other hand, means more … James Wiseman? Ouch.”
“The Pacers historically do not tank, but they might never have a better opportunity to pivot into one than this year without Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton drove last year’s stunning NBA Finals run, but he’s out for the year with the torn Achilles he suffered in Game 7. Without their point guard, Indiana can’t keep the same identity as a high-tempo, low-turnover team with tons of shooting. The offense will be reworked through Pascal Siakam, and it will be interesting to see how the increased usage affects his defense as he ages. Andrew Nembhard steps into a starring role on offense, and he could deliver a big year if he shoots like he did in the playoffs (46.5% from 3) rather than the regular season (29%). The Pacers aren’t just missing Haliburton; they’re also missing Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks over the offseason. There will be more room for players like Bennedict Mathurin, Jarace Walker, Jay Huff and Isaiah Jackson to pop, but I’m skeptical any of them can really drive winning. This is a true gap year for the Pacers, but we’ll never forget the thrill they gave us in the 2025 playoffs.”
Dustin Dopirak covers the Pacers all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Pacers Insider newsletter.
