Elevated wildfire weather conditions persist Tuesday in South and Central Texas as the latest weak cold front brings gusty winds and dry air, according to the National Weather Service. However, San Antonio also could have its best shot at significant rainfall with yet another cold front Friday night into Saturday morning.
San Antonio on Tuesday should be mostly sunny yet blustery, with north-northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, as Tuesday’s front makes its approach. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler than they have been earlier this month, but the forecast high of 89 degrees is still going to be almost 10 degrees warmer than normal for Oct. 21. Skies will remain mostly clear Tuesday night, with the northeast winds kicking up to 10 mph and gusts as strong as 20 mph.
“A trough (of low atmospheric pressure) to the north sends another cold front into the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and Austin metro area Tuesday morning, and into the Rio Grande, San Antonio metro area and Coastal Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening,” the weather service said in a forecast posted online Monday.
Before Tuesday’s front arrives in South and Central Texas, parts of the Interstate 35 corridor and eastward into the Coastal Plains could experience morning fog, forecasters said.
Behind the front, we won’t see drastically reduced temperatures, but we will be at greater risk for fast-spreading wildfires because of gusty northeast winds and drought-parched grasses and vegetation. The Texas A&M Forest Service has Bexar County under moderate wildfire danger Tuesday, with parts of Austin metro area east of I-35 under a higher risk.
Temperatures in San Antonio on Wednesday will start out in the upper 60s before dawn, but they should rise to about 87 degrees in the afternoon, just as the northeast winds shift and become warmer east-southeast winds carrying moisture-rich air from the Gulf Coast. This return to a southerly air flow “quickly re-establishes over the region on Wednesday, allowing low-level moisture to surge back into the area late Wednesday through Thursday,” the weather service said.
San Antonio temperatures are expected to rebound to the 90-degree mark on Thursday, even under partly sunny skies, thanks to balmy south-southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph with gusts as strong as 20 mph. The increase in atmospheric moisture will mean more clouds in the evening. That will help keep overnight temperatures above 69 degrees while the gusty southeast winds persist.
By Friday and Saturday, forecasters said, we might have a shot at measureable rainfall in San Antonio, courtesy of yet another weak cold front.
“Global models are in relatively good agreement about an upper-level trough (of low pressure) moving through the southern Plains Friday into Saturday,” the weather service said, adding that “models have trended southward” and for rainfall to develop along the cold front Friday night into Saturday morning.
San Antonio’s weather outlooks for Friday and Saturday both include a 20% chance of scattered showers and rain, but the chances ramp up to 40% Friday night. While Friday’s temperatures could hit 90 degrees again, the passage of the front will pull down afternoon temperatures to below 86 degrees.
“Details will be refined through the week on precipitation timing, favored locations and storm potential,” the weather service said.
