Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3) [Total: 44.5]
Game Overview
The Chargers kicked off the 2025 campaign with three consecutive divisional wins, giving them a commanding lead in the AFC West. However, that immense success was short-lived. They’ve since suffered losses in three of their past four games, failing to cover as the favorite in each. Their most recent loss at home to the Indianapolis Colts relinquished control of the division, and they’re now clinging to life to not fall further behind the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.
Difficulties protecting Justin Herbert have underscored Los Angeles’ struggles. The Chargers stand as one of just two teams to have allowed their quarterback to get knocked down on more than 20% of his dropbacks. Tackle Joe Alt‘s possible return this week may light a fire under the Chargers’ 30th-ranked offensive line (51.5 PFF grade), but the issues aren’t isolated to the left tackle position. The protection has been abysmal throughout the unit.
For the Vikings, they’ll want to run early and often. That approach will serve multiple purposes, starting with exploiting one of the most troubled run defenses in the NFL this season. The Chargers rank near the bottom of the NFL in successful run rate allowed (36.8%, 30th), yards allowed per carry (5.1, 28th) and explosive run rate allowed (20.0%, 31st). It will also alleviate pressure on a banged-up and struggling quarterback room, as Carson Wentz is slated to start while dealing with a shoulder injury.
The running game will prove vital for a Vikings team that has yet to win a game without averaging 3.9 yards or more per carry out of the backfield. In games in which they do, they’re a perfect 3-0 against the spread.
QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: Over 23.5 completions (+100)
Faced with the VIkings’ aggressive blitz packages, Herbert could find himself taking more hits this week. But with pain may come production — Herbert holds the fourth-highest PFF passing grade (83.9) when blitzed this season. The last time he faced off with Brian Flores’ defense, in Week 3 of the 2023 season, the Vikings sent a blitz on more than 85% of Herbert’s dropbacks. He finished that game with 40 completions on 47 attempts for 405 yards and three touchdowns.
The Chargers possess one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the NFL in neutral game scripts. In one-score games, Los Angeles has dropped back on 67% of plays, the third-highest rate in the NFL. That tendency that has led to high-volume passing days for Herbert. He has surpassed this mark in four games this season and come within two completions in another two.
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