Thursday’s NBA action isn’t nearly as extensive as the 12-game slate on Wednesday, as there are just four teams in action, but two are making their season debuts!
The Denver Nuggets hit the road to play the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night, and Nikola Jokic and company are favored to get their first win of the season. Plus, there is an NBA Finals rematch between the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-0) and the Indiana Pacers, who are playing their first game of the season with Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) sidelined.
I’m eyeing a few props bets for this two-game slate, including a pick for Chet Holmgren after he turned in a monster game in OKC’s double-overtime win over the Houston Rockets on Tuesday.
Here’s a breakdown of each of my favorite player props for Thursday night.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chet Holmgren OVER 17.5 Points (-110)
Thunder star Chet Holmgren had a massive showing on opening night, scoring 28 points on 11-of-17 shooting from the field (2-for-5 from 3) in the win over Houston.
Most of Holmgren’s impact as a scorer came in the first three quarters, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander took over the game in the fourth and the overtime periods.
Holmgren cleared this total twice against Indiana in the Finals last season, and he’s going to play a bigger role on offense until Jalen Williams (wrist) is able to return.
Andrew Nembhard OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-106)
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Nembhard is worth a look in this market:
Nembhard is set to walk into a massive role in the 2025-26 season, as Haliburton is out for the year and T.J. McConnell is sidelined for about a month with a hamstring issue.
So, that leaves Nembhard as the lead guard in an offense that loves to push the pace and lacks proven scoring options after Pascal Siakam.
I think Nembhard could be in the mix to average 15 or more points per game this season, and he’s shown in his career that he can run this offense when Haliburton sits. Across 43 games without Haliburton, Nembhard is averaging 13.0 points, 6.8 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game.
He’s become a better scorer as his career has gone on, averaging career-highs in points (10.0) and assists (5.0) in the 2024-25 season. He’s a prime candidate to make a leap this season, and I think this line is too low against OKC.
Jimmy Butler OVER 17.5 Points (-125)
Jimmy Butler is coming off a 31-point game in the season opener against the Lakers, getting to the line 16 times and knocking down all of them. He’s one of the more dynamic scorers in the game when he’s getting to the line at a high rate, and the Warriors made a point of feeding him on Tuesday.
Butler ended up playing 35.0 minutes and took 14.0 shots, and he averaged 17.9 points per game after the trade to Golden State last season. I think Butler could end up closer to 20 points on Thursday, especially with the total in this game sitting at 233.5.
Denver should match up with Aaron Gordon on him, but this number is a little low considering that Butler averaged over 20 points per game in four straight seasons before the 2024-25 season.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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