Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Minnesota Timberwolves Team Total Over 113.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Prime Video
This is the first of three meetings that will all be nationally televised this season, so I’m sure the Wolves are looking to have a good showing in this first NBA game on Prime. There were times on Wednesday when this offense looked sluggish, but they ended up shooting it extremely well from deep which is a great sign.
Keep that up against this weak Lakers defense and a total like this one becomes very reachable. LA hardly had to worry about the paint in their opener against the Warriors, but that will not be the case against Minnesota here and should help get the Wolves some easy points to balance the three-point shooting. At the end of the day I just really see the Lakers as a defense to fade until further notice, so I’m very invested in this team total tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit): Luka Doncic Over 31.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Luka dropped 43 in the season opener and now he gets to face a team he loves to torment. Seriously, it seems like Doncic takes every opportunity he can to put big numbers on the Wolves, and I doubt he lets this one slip by. With no LeBron and minimal options to help share the scoring load in his absence, the Lakers need everything they can get out of Luka and I think he has another big night here.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Miami Heat/Memphis Grizzlies Over 233.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
Terry Rozier isn’t playing in this game, right? Ok good, no shenanigans to hold this one under a total that I think is fairly moderate given the situation. The Heat also won’t have Tyler Herro for a few more weeks, but Erik Spoelstra proved again on Wednesday that you give him 5 dudes and a basketball, he’ll make it work.
I could not believe how much of a high-flying affair Miami got into with *checks notes* Orlando of all teams. It wasn’t even that much of an offensive showcase as shooting was fairly average, they just both got up and down the floor like crazy. Carry that over into a game with Memphis and this total is nowhere near high enough, as the Grizzlies proved they’ll be an up-tempo team again. Interestingly, this is a rematch of the preseason finale that saw 266 points, which doesn’t mean a ton but maybe these teams just know how to score against each other.
MLB (0.5 Unit) Blake Snell Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
There isn’t a whole lot to like in Game 1 of the Fall Classic for me, other than this number which unfortunately comes with a heavy dose of juice. I’ll lay it though since it’s at the limit of my juice tolerance, and because it’s been so reliable with Snell lately. All three postseason starts and six straight overall have seen Snell go over this total, and with the benefit of a ton of extra rest, he should be ready to have another extended outing. The Dodgers have to count on him to eat innings and keep the bullpen out of it, and he has solid numbers against Toronto’s bats overall, so I see at least 6 innings out of the LA ace tonight.
Degenerates
NBA Cleveland Cavaliers Team Total Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES
The Cavaliers are not whole, missing Darius Garland and Max Strus, plus they might be without De’Andre Hunter tonight. But I really don’t think it takes much to run up the score on this Nets team that might be headed for an all-time bad season. There was absolutely no resistance out of Brooklyn in their opener Wednesday, as the Hornets got whatever they wanted both inside and out. The Cavs shouldn’t face much resistance either, and are in a bounce back spot after a tough loss to the Knicks, so even shorthanded I like their potential to pile up points.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-30 (-7.88 Units) – Recommend: Probably Fade
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
