In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Alexander Volkov and Jailton Almeida meet Saturday at UFC 321 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+ / FX), followed by the main card at 2 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 321: Volkov vs. Almeida odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Volkov (38-11-0) | Almeida (22-3-0)
Volkov is looking to bounce back after a split-decision loss at UFC 310 Dec. 7 to Ciryl Gane, who is fighting for a title against Tom Aspinall in 321’s co-main event. It likely would have been Volkov vs. Aspinall had he defeated Gane. Volkov’s heartbreaking loss snapped a 4-bout win streak: unanimous-decision win over Sergei Pavlovich (June 2024), submission win at UFC 293 over Tai Tuivasa (September 2023), and a pair of Round-1 KO/TKO’s against Alexandr Romanov (March 2023) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (June 2022).
Almeida made quick work of Serghei Spivac last time out at UFC 311 (June 18), winning in Round 1 via KO/TKO. It was his second straight Round-1 finish, as he notched a submission victory over Romanov at UFC 302 (June 2024). At the UFC level, Almeida is 8-1. He gone the distance just once, while posting a 4-0 mark via submission, and 3-1 mark by way of KO/TKO.
Volkov holds a 1-inch reach advantage over Almeida, and has a 4.97-to-2.62 significant strikes landed per minute. Almeida, the Galpao Da Luta team member, has a 73.11% significant-strikes accuracy percentage mark, and he holds a 6.58 takedown advantage to just 0.61 for Volkov. The Brazilian fighter also has a 2.41 submission average, to just 0.24 for the Russian Volkov.
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UFC 321: Volkov vs. Almeida odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:31 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Volkov +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Almeida -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Total rounds: 1.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +225 | No -325)
UFC 321: Volkov vs. Almeida picks and predictions
VOLKOV (+165) is too big of a value to pass up.
The taller Russian fighter has a 1-inch reach advantage over Almeida. He also nearly doubles him up in the significant strikes landed per minute category. What Almeida does well is get fighters to the ground, and he is the more superior wrestler. If Volkov is to win, he’ll need to keep this as a toe-to-toe brawl. While he did submit Tuivasa at UFC 293, he won’t want to play with fire going to the canvas Saturday with “Malhadinho.”
Let’s roll the dice on VOLKOV BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+300) for the chance to multiply up by 3 times. Since UFC 254 (October 2020), he had 4 KO/TKO victories in the past 10 bouts.
Let’s also roll with OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-135), while ignoring the No (-325): Fight to go the distance since it costs more than 3 times the potential return.
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