Valencia are once again off to a slow start this season, sitting 14th at 2-3-4. Meanwhile, Villarreal find themselves inside the top three at 5-2-2, only behind the likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Despite Villarreal’s strong start, their form has dipped, and the team is winless across four matches. They’ll be the more fatigued side after a big Champions League match in midweek against Man City that they lost.
Both teams rank in the bottom half of xGA, allowing 11.7 in La Liga and have been shipping plenty of goals in league play. Only three teams have allowed more than Valencia’s 14 goals conceded. While Villarreal’s ten is slightly better, a quick look at all of their matches across all competitions shows they’ve conceded two or more goals now in four straight.
This Valencian region derby isn’t always high-scoring, with bets on Under 2.5 goals cashing in five of the past six. However, bets on both teams scoring have also cashed in five of six, with both meetings last year ending 1-1.
Valencia is the weaker side, but they usually get up for the Derbi de la Comunitat, as they are undefeated in eight home meetings with Villarreal.
With such leaky defenses in play, I expect both sides to find the net at least once on Saturday.
