Will Mississippi State upset Texas, Arch Manning, end SEC losing streak? Our prediction

STARKVILLE — Texas was the No. 1 team in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll, but this appears to be a much more winnable game now for Mississippi State football.

The Bulldogs (4-3, 0-3 SEC) are taking on the No. 18 Longhorns (5-2, 2-1) at Davis Wade Stadium on Oct. 25 (3:15 p.m., SEC Network).

Texas has struggled offensively in Arch Manning’s first season as the full-time starting quarterback. The Longhorns have losses to Ohio State and Florida, and needed overtime to beat Kentucky.

MSU with second-year coach Jeff Lebby has already doubled its wins from last season and upset then-No. 10 Arizona State, but it’s lost three consecutive games.

Here is our score prediction for the Week 9 game.

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Mississippi State vs Texas prediction

Expect another low-scoring game. While the Longhorns ran up the score on UTEP and San Jose State, they haven’t topped 27 points in any of their other five games. Texas is averaging 16.8 points in its four games against power conference opponents.

Mississippi State has been better in its four games against power conference teams, but not by much at 22 points per game.

MSU’s offensive line could be the difference in this matchup. The Bulldogs got starting right tackle Albert Reese IV back from injury against Florida in Week 8, and the unit blocked much better. Texas’ defense has been its strength, allowing just 11.3 points per game.

A win for Mississippi State would end its 15-game SEC losing streak.

Mississippi State vs Texas scouting report

Why Mississippi State has an advantage: The Mississippi State defense has been much better this season and has been competitive in all three SEC games. The pass defense has been a big reason why. MSU is allowing 187.3 passing yards per game, 30th nationally. The Bulldogs’ 10 interceptions are tied for sixth nationally and lead the SEC.

The Bulldogs were in range for a potential game-winning field goal against Florida before quarterback Blake Shapen threw an interception. Leading rusher Fluff Bothwell didn’t play in that game, and his status is uncertain against Texas, but Davon Booth recorded 119 total yards and two touchdowns in his absence.

Why Texas has an advantage: Texas’ defense has been dominant all season. The Longhorns have 21 sacks, tied for fourth in the SEC and 11 more than Mississippi State’s total. Colin Simmons is a star edge rusher with seven sacks. Offenses are averaging only 2.6 yards per carry against the Longhorns, and they’ve surrendered just three passing touchdowns all season.

However, Texas’ leading tackler, safety Michael Taaffe, is out against Mississippi State.

Mississippi State vs Texas injury report

SEC availability report as of Oct. 22:

Mississippi State

• DL Will Whitson: Out
• OL Blake Steen: Out
• OL Brennan Smith: Out
• LB Zakari Tillman: Out for the first half (targeting suspension)
• RB Fluff Bothwell: Questionable

Texas

• WR Aaron Butler: Out
• DB Michael Taaffe: Out
• OL Cole Hutson: Out
• RB CJ Baxter: Probable
• DB Xavier Filsaime: Probable
• LB Jonathan Cunningham: Probable

MORE: Jeff Lebby reaffirms faith in kicker Kyle Ferrie after trying to get closer for potential winner

Mississippi State vs Texas score prediction

Texas 23, Mississippi State 21

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for The Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.