Preview:WTA Finals: Jessica Pegula vs. Jasmine Paolini – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far
Sports Mole previews Thursday’s WTA Finals round-robin match between Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
In what is a dead rubber for Jasmine Paolini, Jessica Pegula needs to beat the Italian No. 1 in the final round-robin match in the Steffi Graf Group on Thursday.
The American enters the encounter with a 1-1 record for the WTA Finals in Riyadh, where Paolini was eliminated after two straight-set losses to Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.
Match preview
Entering the year-end tournament after reaching the final in Wuhan, Pegula has had a mixed performance in Saudi Arabia, defeating Coco Gauff in the rematch of the WTA 1000 final and losing to Aryna Sabalenka.
Nevertheless, the American No. 3 should take positives from taking Sabalenka to a decider for the third consecutive encounter, even if she has been beaten in two: the US Open semi-final and the year-end Finals.
Despite losing to the Belarusian, the nine-time WTA champion remains in contention to reach the semi-finals, and facing an opponent with nothing to play for but pride supports that aim.
Considering that Gauff and Sabalenka will duke it out in the other match of the group, a victory for Pegula boosts the 31-year-old’s chances of reaching the last four.
Success for the American player will be her 53rd of the season, and she will aim to improve on a 52-22 record in 2025 at Paolini’s expense.
By the end of her two-set loss to Gauff, Paolini seemed exhausted and appeared reluctant to be there, with disappointment evident after consecutive straight-set defeats.
The second of those defeats means the Italian No. 1 has now exited the Finals at the group stage in 2024 and 2025, and she also suffered another setback in doubles, falling with Sara Errani on Wednesday.
It remains to be seen if the 29-year-old has anything left in the tank when she takes to the court on Thursday, aiming to match last year’s 1-2 record in Riyadh.
Entering the final match with a season record of 46-20, Paolini seeks a 47th win to break her current losing streak that includes defeats to Elena Rybakina in Ningbo and two losses to Gauff and Sabalenka in Saudi Arabia.
Having recently defeated Pegula in the Billie Jean Cup Final in September, Paolini hopes to draw on some energy reserve to win the final round-robin encounter.
Tournament so far
Jessica Pegula:
Round Robin: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 6-7[4] 6-2
Round Robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 4-6 6-2 3-6
Jasmine Paolini:
Round Robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 1-6
Round Robin: vs. Coco Gauff 3-6 2-6
Head To Head
Billie Jean King Cup (2025) – Dinal: Paolini 6-4 6-2
Montreal (2023) – Round of 32: Pegula 6-4 6-0
Charleston (2022) – Round of 32: Pegula 6-2 6-1
Indian Wells (2021) – Third Round: Pegula 6-4 6-1
Houston (2018) – First Round: Pegula 7-6(8) 6-2
While Pegula lost her most recent encounter with Paolini at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals in September, she still leads their head-to-head 4-1.
However, those matches occurred between 2018 and 2023, before the Italian star’s rise in the past 24 months on the women’s tour.
Four of their five tour-level clashes have been on hard courts, with Pegula leading 3-1 on said surface.
We say: Pegula to win in two sets
With nothing left to play for on the singles side, it is hard to see Paolini playing anywhere near her best against Pegula on Thursday.
As a result, we expect the American to ease past the Italian No. 1 in straight sets and possibly into the semi-finals in Riyadh.
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