The Commanders will be facing the Chiefs this upcoming Monday Night. It makes for a battle of two great offenses, wearing red in Arrowhead. Washington is with Jayden Daniels, but they will confidently turn to Marcus Mariota. Their upside will lie with their run game and as the Chiefs project to lead, they will likely rely on their run game as well. This provides for opportunity for Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Isiah Pacheco to have promising Week 8 performances. They are the focus of our start ’em, sit ’em today.
Fantasy Sports On SI Week 8 Ranking: RB23
The RB1 in Washington is very clearly Croskey-Merritt. He has about 35% of team rushing yards and nearly 40% of team rushes. This has Croskey-Merritt rushing for 4.2 Yards per Carry, which comes to 377 Yards and 4 Touchdowns. “Bill” has been out snapped in the red zone by Chris Rodriguez Jr., but it tends to mean less as Croskey-Merritt has 4 Touchdowns to Rodriguez’ zero.
When we view snaps in this backfield, it has been volatile, but Croskey-Merritt will trend around 50-60%, for the most part. Washington is the 7th highest team in run-rate at 54%, so 50-60% has tremendous upside. Croskey-Merritt is currently the RB22 in Fantasy Football, and trending upwards.
The Commanders are going to be facing the Chiefs this upcoming Monday Night. The Chiefs matchup as the 7th best defense versus running backs in regards to fantasy points per game. Given win rates, the Commanders do anticipate to have an advantage in front of Croskey-Merritt. They should go tight end heavy to go run-heavy as Mariota is at quarterback. They should find moderate success.
Fantasy Sports On SI Week 8 Ranking: RB24
The counter to Washington will be the Chiefs, and their leadback is not clearly defined, but it would be Pacheco. He has just north of 30% of team rushing yards. Pacheco has 1 Touchdown to the 3 that Kareem Hunt has. Mahomes has 4 of his own.
In the red zone, the Chiefs running game has broken down as: (11) carries to Hunt, (10) carries to Pacheco, and (7) to Brashard Smith. As they aim to get Smith more involved, this does give added risk to Pacheco. The snap-share of Pacheco, however, he remained consistently around 50-60%.
Pacheco will face a Commanders run stop the is dead-average in the NFL. Regarding win-rates, the Commanders have the defensive advantage, although not a dominant one.
This is a very close debate between these two players. Croskey-Merritt has higher-upside and less-risk in our analysis. However, he may have less scoring chances, but that is just a projection and not a fact given the Chiefs “should” win this game rather easily.
Pacheco is a player that comes with a bit of risk that I would avoid only if I can. I would be nervous about Smith breaking into the snaps here. I would be worried about the red zone. In the long-term, I would be worried that the Chiefs trade for a running back. As for Croskey-Merritt, his role is solidified.
We will play Croskey-Merritt in a run-heavier offense where he has also shown more touchdown opportunity. Even if the Commanders did fall behind, I could still see them shoving the run. On paper, they matchup favorably as it is.
Play Jacory Croskey-Merrit for safer and equal upside.
