Toronto Maple Leafs @ Philadelphia Flyers
07:00 PM at Xfinity Mobile Arena
Watch on: CBC, NHLN, NBCSP
The Leafs last game was away on October 29 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which Toronto lost by a score of 6-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 5-5-1 for a 0.500 Points %.
The Philadelphia Flyers last played at home on October 30 against the Nashville Predators. The Flyers won by a score of 4-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 6-3-1 for a 0.650 Points %.
Them
They have some injuries including goalie Samuel Ersson on IR as of yesterday. Dan Vladar is the horse they’re riding so far this season. Sean Couturier is also now out of the lineup.
You can tell it’s early in the season when the Flyers’ impressive .650 Points % is good for only fourth in their division. This early, the question is how real is this? You may have forgotten that the Flyers had no bad overall play last year, they just had no goaltending to speak of.
This season Philadelphia gets outshot a bit, muddles along with 50% Expected Goals – and wow that sounds familiar. They have a very poor pace of offensive play, however and make up for it with lowering the quality of shots allowed. I have heard this somewhere… Their swings between low event/quality offence and good defending are bigger than the Leafs though. But just like the Leafs, they spend so much time in the defensive zone – quality of play aside – that they limit their opportunities offensively.
Their power play is very poor and they score at a mediocre rate there.
Lines
From morning skate via Daily Faceoff
Owen Tippett – Trevor Zegras – Matvei Michkov
Tyson Foerster – Noah Cates – Bobby Brink
Nikita Grebenkin – Christian Dvorak – Travis Konecny
Jacob Gaucher – Rodrigo Abols – Garnet Hathaway
Cam York – Travis Sanheim
Nick Seeler – Jamie Drysdale
Egor Zamula – Noah Juulsen
Dan Vladar – confirmed starter
Aleksei Kolosov
Us
The Leafs lineup is in flux with players returning or nearly returning from injury. Chris Tanev is back from a concussion, and Scott Laughton is now back at practice. William Nylander, a game-time decision last game, is still not 100%. Steven Lorentz, hurt in the last game, is listed as day-to-day but was at morning skate.
Nylander is out tonight, Laughton likely in. That means yesterday’s lineup is likely going to be changed around.
Lines
From practice yesterday but expect Laughton to come in on the fourth line and Someone to sit out for him. Might this be Max Domi’s return to the top line? We’ll know at game time.
Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – Nicholas Robertson
Matias Maccelli – John Tavares – Bobby McMann
Dakota Joshua – Nicolas Roy – Easton Cowan
Sammy Blais – Max Domi – Calle Järnkrok
Morgan Rielly – Brandon Carlo
Simon Benoit – Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Chris Tanev
Anthony Stolarz – confirmed starter
Cayden Primeau
The Game
Something I noticed looking up the Flyers today: most teams in the NHL are scoring under expected on the power play. Maybe this is a common thing in the early parts of a season as teams get in the groove, but when you look at just the Leafs with an eye to how they’ve failed to measure up, it’s an easy target to say they’re bad and should feel bad for the slow to ramp up power play.
At even strength the Leafs have what looks like a formula that is a little too close to the bone, but isn’t terrible. Their Expected Goals is 2.4 to 2.5 which means that with above average goaltending and/or shooting overall, they should win the even strength minutes.
No one wants to play that tight all season, but in a league where the “only team tanking” is leading the standings as of this morning, maybe figuring out how to make the muddy middle work is the winning play. They need to be better, but they don’t need massive levels of improvement.
Go Leafs go! Play like no one is watching – because they aren’t.
