Preview:Nitto ATP World Tour Finals: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alex de Minaur – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far
Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Nitto ATP World Tour Finals between Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur, including predictions, head-to-head and tournament so far.
Two players seeking their first victory at the 2025 Nitto ATP World Tour Finals will square off in Turin on Tuesday as Lorenzo Musetti faces Alex de Minaur.
In his opening match on Monday, Musetti lost in straight sets to Taylor Fritz 3-6 4-6, while the Australian was beaten by the top-seeded Carlos Alcaraz 6-7 2-6.
Match preview
Coming into this tournament as a surprise last-minute entrant following the withdrawal of Novak Djokovic, Lorenzo Musetti failed to impress in his opening match.
The runner-up at the ATP men’s tournament in Athens earlier this month hit five double faults against the American, while only winning 66% of his first serves.
Musetti has lost two of his last three singles encounters on tour when losing the opening se on the hard court, with his lone triumph over that stretch coming against Stanislas Wawrinka in Athens.
A 2024 Olympic bronze medalist, Musetti is experiencing the best year of his career, reaching a career-high ranking of sixth in the world on the men’s side in June.
What has eluded him in 2025 is a singles trophy, with Musetti reaching the semi-finals or further in two of his previous three singles hard-court events.
In 2025, he has captured 74% of his first serve points on the hard court but registered 95 double faults, which is part of the reason why he has yet to claim a singles title this year.
His reputation as a competitor who makes life difficult for superior opponents remains intact, but Alex de Minaur still lacks a signature win against a top player this year.
In his opening match, the Australian pushed Alcaraz into a tiebreak opening set, but after coming up just short, he crumbled in his must-win second set against the Spaniard.
On Sunday, de Mintaur did not have a single double fault, but lacked aggression on his first serve, winning just 63% of those throughout his match.
He also collected two break points, but could not capitalise in the long run, allowing four to Alcaraz in that encounter, as the Spaniard cruised to a comfortable second-set triumph.
de Minaur has been beaten in his last six singles matches on the hard court when losing the opening set, with his last triumph in that scenario coming at the Washington Open final in July against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
On the hard court this year, de Mintaur boasts a first serve percentage of 56%, while winning a mere 67% of his total service points on that surface in 2025.
Tournament so far
Lorenzo Musetti:
Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 3-6 4-6
Alex de Minaur:
Round Robin:vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-7 (7-5) 2-6
Head To Head
Australian Open (2022) – First round: de Minaur wins 3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3
Queen’s Club Championship (2024) – First Round: Musetti wins 1-6 6-4 6-2
Monte Carlo Open (2025) – Semi-finals: Musetti wins 1-6 6-4 7-6
Madrid Open (2025) – Fourth Round: Musetti wins 6-4, 6-4
When these two first met in de Minaur’s home country, the Australian hit four aces and managed to claim four break points en route to victory.
The next time they faced off in London, it was Musetti who overcame a first-set defeat, hitting seven aces to beat de Mintaur for the first time in a singles contest.
Earlier this year in Monaco, the Italian outdid his opponent in first serves with over 66%, while de Mintaur had just above 50% throughout the encounter.
When they met again in Madrid, Musetti had three break points and did not concede a single one to de Mintaur as he wound up winning comfortably.
We say: de Minaur to win in three sets
While Musetti has gotten the better of de Mintaur lately, the Aussie has shown plenty of strong play, and we believe he will be able to bring it all together and find a way to win on Tuesday.
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