Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De Minaur Preview: Head-to-Head and Prediction for ATP Finals 2025
One of the matches at the 2025 ATP Finals on Day 3 will see Lorenzo Musetti face off against Alex De Minaur. Musetti is coming on the back of a tremendous season, which saw the Italian qualify for the ATP Finals for the first time in his career. The bulk of his great results came during the clay season with a runner-up finish at Monte-Carlo, and semifinal finishes at Madrid, Rome, and Vienna. By the end of the year, he also had runner-up finishes at hard-court events in Chengdu and Athens. He began his campaign in Turin with a 4-6, 3-6 loss to Taylor Fritz.
Meanwhile, De Minaur’s only title success came at Washington this year. Barring that title run, the Australian had a runner-up finish in Rotterdam, and semifinal finishes in Monte-Carlo, Beijing, and Vienna. He began his campaign at the ATP Finals with a loss as well, going down 6-7 (5), 2-6 against Carlos Alcaraz in the opening match.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex De Minaur Match Details
Date: Nov. 11, 2025
Tournament: ATP Finals 2025
Round: (Group stage) Round-Robin
Venue: Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy
Category: ATP Finals
Surface: Indoor hardcourt
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Musetti vs De Minaur Head-to-Head
After four meetings, Musetti has a 3-1 lead in the head-to-head against De Minaur. The Italian won the pair’s last meeting 6-4, 6-2 at Madrid this year, while also winning against the Australian in Monte-Carlo this year. The only win for De Minaur came on a hard court when he won against the Italian at the 2022 Australian Open.
Musetti vs De Minaur Prediction
Through the course of the season, Musetti has won 66 percent of the total service points and 39 percent of the total return points. He has won 83 percent of the service games and 26 percent of the return games, thanks to his break point conversion rate of 40 percent in the season.
Meanwhile, De Minaur has won 67 percent of the service points and 41 percent of the return points. The Australian has won 85 percent of his service games and 30 percent of the return games in the season, while having a 43 percent break point conversion rate.
More: Lorenzo Musetti Addresses ‘Strange Situation’ Surrounding Novak Djokovic’s ATP Finals Cancellation, Reveals How He Reacted
On the indoor hard courts, Musetti has a 7-5 win-loss record this season so far, with a runner-up finish in Athens and a semifinal finish in Vienna being his best results. On the other hand, De Minaur has a 10-4 win-loss record indoors this year, with a runner-up finish in Rotterdam being his best result this year.
The match being on an indoor hard court will give an advantage to De Minaur, as his court movement on the surface is second to none. Even though Musetti has made significant improvements to his hard-court game, the Italian will be on fumes at this later part of the season, having played through a hectic schedule to qualify for Turin, giving even more of an advantage to the Australian.
Prediction: De Minaur to win in straight sets
