Strong storm expected to hit Merced, Fresno. Here’s how much rain could fall

The atmospheric river that is expected to hit the Central Valley this week could bring up to an inch of rain in a 24-hour period, the National Weather Service in Hanford said.
NWS Hanford posted an image on X on Tuesday that shows Merced with an 85 percent chance and Fresno with an 86 percent chance of seeing at least an inch of rain starting early Thursday and ending Saturday morning.
The Merced County Office of Emergency Services said on a Facebook post that wind gusts could reach up to 30 mph.
The atmospheric river is forecast to bring heavy rain, lightning and thunderstorms to parts of California, the National Weather Service said earlier this week.
During the atmospheric river event, NWS said, there is a high risk of heavy precipitation that could lead to flooding.
The NWS said there is a “marginal risk” for excessive rainfall.
This story was originally published November 12, 2025 at 11:13 AM.
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Jim Silva
The Modesto Bee
Jim Silva has been involved in covering local sports and news for The Modesto Bee since 1996. He graduated with a degree in journalism from San Jose State.



