Wall Street analysts are wondering if Nvidia (NVDA) Chief Executive Jensen Huang can say anything that will drive shares of the world’s most valuable company higher after its fiscal third-quarter report late Wednesday. Nvidia stock is hovering above a key support level heading into the Q3 print.
Nvidia stock spiked to a record high of 212.19 on Oct. 29 one day after Huang touted sales commitments for its current Blackwell AI processors and upcoming Rubin chips totaling $500 billion. Most of those sales will be recorded in 2026.
“The company, stock and expectations are now so overanalyzed that (it) feels hard for the company to beat and guide up enough to really create a rush of buying right after the fact,” Mizuho Securities trading desk analyst Jordan Klein in a report Monday.
“Investors are on edge and heightened alert that AI capex spend is getting to excessive levels that is unsustainable and not fundable via existing credit markets,” Klein said. As a result, he sees a poor near-term setup for Nvidia stock.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nvidia to earn an adjusted $1.25 a share on sales of $54.8 billion in the quarter ended Oct. 26. That would translate to year-over-year growth of 55% in earnings and 56% in sales.
For the current quarter, its fiscal Q4, Wall Street is modeling earnings of $1.44 a share, up 62%, on sales of $62 billion, up 58%.
“My gut tells me the stock doesn’t move higher unless the revenue guide is over $65 billion,” Klein said.
However, Nvidia stock has fallen after three of its last five quarterly earnings reports.
Nvidia Stock Is On Four IBD Lists
Nvidia’s report will have an outsize impact on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes, given its valuation, Jay Woods, chief market strategist for Freedom Capital Markets, said in a client note Monday. Nvidia holds an even bigger sway on two top technology exchange traded funds — Vaneck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and in the Technology Select Spider ETF (XLK). Nvidia has a current market capitalization of about $4.5 trillion.
“Saying this is the most important stock in the world is an understatement,” Woods said.
Nvidia stock is on four IBD lists: IBD 50, Stock Spotlight, IBD Sector Leaders and Tech Leaders.
Wall Street will be closely watching Nvidia’s results, guidance and commentary to gauge the health of the AI megatrend, Wedbush Securities analyst Daniel Ives said in a client note Monday.
“Nvidia is a foundational piece of this AI Revolution and we expect Nvidia will handily exceed Street estimates given the plethora of positive data points we have picked up from our Asia supply chain checks, coupled by the monster Big Tech capex numbers seen by the hyperscalers in late October earnings,” Ives said.
Nvidia Stock Dips Ahead Of Report
Other analysts are more cautious heading into Nvidia’s report. Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore rates Nvidia stock as hold with a price target of 180.
In afternoon trades on the stock market today, Nvidia stock slid more than 1% to 186.74. It is trading just above its 50-day moving average line, a key support level.
“We believe investors are increasingly cautious surrounding a feared ‘AI bubble,’ with this earnings season showing more scrutiny on the massive capex investments deployed by hyperscalers (albeit with these not seemingly slowing down),” Seymore said in a client note Sunday.
Follow Patrick Seitz on X at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
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