Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Boston Celtics First Half -6.5 @ Brooklyn Nets (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:30 PM CT on YES
The Nets won a game last time out on Sunday, blowing out their competition for the best lottery odds in Washington by 23 points. That’s simply not acceptable to the Brooklyn regime that wants to pile up the losses for next June’s draft, so it should be back to losing tonight, and losing badly. I think that starts right out of the gates, and will allow Boston to build a big lead by halftime against the team that’s dead last in average first half margin at minus-10.0 points in home games.
The Celtics are obviously not the same this season, but they’ve still been good at beating up on teams that want to lose. They’ve faced 4 opponents so far who have no interest in basketball, leading them at halftime by 11, 10, 10, and 19 points. The Celtics offense is still solid enough to exploit a defense that’s arguably the worst in the league, so I think they take it to the Nets in the first half here.
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) Sieh Bangura Over 96.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
Rarely, and I mean rarely, do I ever venture into the college football prop world, but this one looks too tasty to pass up. We have a blowout brewing in this game as Ohio is favored by 33.5 points against UMass, who is a dead team walking. The Minutemen have no intention of trying in any game while they play out the string, and they were awful before they quit.
I think Bangura takes advantage, with UMass trotting out a terrible run defense in a game where he should get a lot of carries to run out the clock. The senior RB has gone over this total in 6 of his past 7 games, while averaging 104.7 yards per game in MAC play. Weather doesn’t look so great in Athens tonight either, so Ohio is likely to keep it on the ground more which should mean a big night for their lead back.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Navy @ UNC -25 (+100; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
I think this is an incorrect valuation of Navy, giving them too much credit, as well as UNC, in not giving them enough credit. The Midshipmen are not terrible, but they haven’t really played anyone particularly difficult and were still blown out by 29 points on their own floor by Yale, who’s arguably the best competition so far. UNC is leagues ahead of that level, and already has two wins of 40-plus points against mid-major teams this season. It should be a bloodbath down low for Navy, who has nobody to match up with Caleb Wilson or Henri Veesaar, so I see the Tar Heels pulling away with ease here for a blowout win.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Idaho St @ Santa Clara -17.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I’m getting pretty impressed with this Santa Clara squad, who seems to keep getting better. Three double-digit wins over solid competition, including a blowout win at Xavier, has me keeping an eye on this team going forward. I think it continues tonight in a game that really favors their style, as the Broncos love to fire from deep and are shooting it at the country’s 22nd-best percentage. While Idaho State has been fairly competitive, as both of these teams sit at 3-0 ATS this season, the Bengals really struggle to guard the three-ball as they allow the 8th-highest percentage in the country. If those shots are falling for a Santa Clara team playing with a ton of confidence, this could snowball into a blowout and I see a 20-point win for the home team.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 16-21 (-3.50 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
