Sports Mole previews Sunday’s Serie A clash between Hellas Verona and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Both struggling near the bottom of Serie A, Hellas Verona and Parma will meet at Stadio Bentegodi for Sunday’s lunchtime kickoff.
The relegation rivals are separated by two points after 11 matches, with Hellas trailing behind their Emilian visitors and yet to post a league win.
Match preview
Verona’s search for an elusive victory will continue this week, as Paolo Zanetti’s side drew 0-0 with lowly Lecce just before the international break, leaving them 19th in the Serie A standings.
Sitting just one point above rock-bottom Fiorentina with nearly a third of the season completed, Hellas have recorded six draws and five defeats so far – their sole success came in a Coppa Italia penalty shootout more than three months ago.
While they have had little trouble creating chances, finding the right finish has proved a major problem, and Zanetti’s men have only scored six league goals – four on home turf.
Captain Suat Serdar and Nigeria forward Gift Orban are the Scaligeri’s leading marksmen with two goals apiece, while talented attacker Giovane – who is drawing attention from bigger clubs ahead of the winter transfer window – has found the net just once.
This weekend, Verona will host opponents with a similarly weak record: an overdue win would lift them above Parma and potentially take them out of the relegation zone.
In the current context, it may not be a surprise that when the sides last met, in March, they played out a 0-0 draw at the Bentegodi.
Parma picked up just one point from two meetings last term, but they will target all three on Sunday afternoon, having given AC Milan a major scare just before the break.
Trailing by two goals approaching half time, the Crociati struck back through Adrian Bernabe’s exquisite finish; in the second half, Mateo Pellegrino hit the woodwork before Enrico Delprato equalised with a glancing header.
Such a spirited performance will boost morale in the camp, following a long settling-in period for rookie coach Carlos Cuesta: Parma had previously made their worst start to a top-flight campaign for 11 years.
A long battle for survival still awaits, though, as the Emilian side have gone six games without a win and are dangling just above the drop zone – like Verona, finding the net has proved their main problem.
Hellas Verona Serie A form:
L D D L L D
Parma Serie A form:
L D D L L D
Team News
Zanetti will again be without his skipper on Sunday, as Serdar is struggling to overcome a knee injury that kept him out of Verona’s last two matches.
Daniel Oyegoke and long-term absentee Tomas Suslov are also unavailable, but Libyan midfielder Moatasem Al-Musrati is back in training and could even start.
Chief creator Giovane should support Orban up front, while Pellegrino and Patrick Cutrone are set to join forces in Parma’s attack.
The visitors have several fitness concerns, as Pontus Almqvist, Nahuel Estevez, Abdoulaye Ndiaye and Gaetano Oristanio are all doubts, while key defender Alessandro Circati is still recovering from an ankle injury.
Though Christian Ordonez is back from a ban – and Jacob Ondrejka will return from a brief layoff – Zion Suzuki could be sidelined for three months with a broken finger sustained against Milan.
Cuesta has called upon 38-year-old compatriot Vicente Guaita, who recently joined on a free transfer, to replace his much-coveted goalkeeper, albeit reserve stopper Edoardo Corvi could start at the Bentegodi.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Bella-Kotchap, Nelsson, Valentini; Belghali, Akpa Akpro, Gagliardini, Bernede, Bradaric; Giovane, Orban
Parma possible starting lineup:
Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Valenti; Britschgi, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valeri; Cutrone, Pellegrino
We say: Hellas Verona 2-1 Parma
Neither side has scored freely this season, but Verona are overdue a win, and they should be able to beat brittle Parma.
The visitors will be missing some key men for this battle of the Gialloblu, so their wait for an away victory will go on.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 1-0 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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