Week 11 was another winning week for my straight-up picks at 12-3. Those picks are 43-13 over the past four weeks. Let’s keep that going in Week 12.
I’m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series.
Keep in mind that because the idea is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.
If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-14 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.
Here is how my Week 11 picks fared, along with my current season record.
- Overall picks to win: 12-3 in Week 11 (115-48-1 for the season)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 8-3 (73-35-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-0 (42-13) - Overall to cover the spread: 8-5-2 (83-75-6)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 7-4-2 (69-61-5)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-1 (14-14-1)
Now let’s get into the Week 12 selections.
All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Houston Texans
This is a tough spot for the Bills. They had the emotional win over Kansas City in Week 9, fell apart against Miami in Week 10, then had to fire up to win a high-scoring game against Tampa Bay last week. Following that up with a short-week road game against a scrappy Houston squad is not ideal. It’s why I’m picking Buffalo to win by a very small amount.
- Pick to win: Buffalo (Confidence level: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Houston (Confidence level: 3)
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
The Vikings have lost four of their last five games, yet the metric analysis indicates Minnesota and Green Bay are very close. The Packers’ passing attack is not as far ahead of the Vikings as it should be, given the quarterback disparity in favor of Green Bay. The Packers also likely won’t have Josh Jacobs available. Green Bay is the more talented team and is at home, but the fact that the Packers aren’t playing to their talent level is why I’m giving the cover to Minnesota.
- Pick to win: Green Bay (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Minnesota (CL: 3)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
The wild card in this game is whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be able to play through a broken wrist. The reality is, even if Rodgers does play, the Bears’ passing attack is equal to the Steelers. Chicago also has a notable advantage in the ground game, and that’s before factoring in Jaylen Warren’s injury. Pittsburgh does have a better defense. That will keep this game close, but it’s not enough. Chicago gets my overall and cover picks because of the ground attack edge, and the game being in Chicago.
- Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (CL: 2)
New England Patriots (-8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
This game is a lot closer on paper than it might seem. New England has a great quarterback in Drake Maye, yet the Bengals’ pass attack is every bit as good because of better wide receivers and pass blocking. Cincinnati’s problem is that its defense is so bad that the Bengals have allowed 120 points over the past three games. I portend this to be high-scoring and New England wins, but not by enough to cover.
- Pick to win: New England (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati (CL: 3)
New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-11)
It’s tough to find an area where the Giants are as good as the Lions, much less better. Detroit has superior passing and rushing attacks on both sides of the ball. The Lions are also healthier and at home. That makes my win pick easy to make. The spread pick is a tougher call. I’ll take the Lions in that area as well, but with nowhere near as much confidence.
- Pick to win: Detroit (CL: 8)
- Pick to cover the spread: Detroit (CL: 4)
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans
This is hands down the most lopsided game of the week in my stat analysis. The Seahawks have an edge in all but one category and in many cases have an overwhelming advantage. The only caveat here is that this game is in Tennessee, a place where teams often struggle to play to their talent level.
- Pick to win: Seattle (CL: 9)
- Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (CL: 6)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
The 3.5-point spread in favor of the host Chiefs suggests that the betting public sees this game as even personnel-wise. That’s a spot-on assessment. These teams rate about as uniformly as is possible. The Colts do have a big rush game edge with Jonathan Taylor, but the Chiefs offset that with Patrick Mahomes. This is a case where I’ll pick Kansas City to win because they are the home team but will take the Colts to cover.
- Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 2)
- Pick to cover the spread: Indianapolis (CL: 2)
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
It’s not difficult to see why the Ravens are a 13.5-point home favorite against a dismal Jets squad. The problem is that the stat analysis doesn’t suggest this point spread is justified. Baltimore does grade better in some areas, but New York grades out even in many areas and has a notable advantage in special teams. The Jets had a 13-point push last week versus a New England squad that is better than Baltimore. That’s why I’ll take New York to cover.
- Pick to win: Baltimore (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: New York (CL: 2)
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-4)
These teams are so dismal that they rate even in nearly every category. Cleveland gets a big edge in pass rush, but the Raiders are healthier and are the home team. The Browns have to give Shedeur Sanders his first NFL start. That shifts the pass game edge to Geno Smith and company. It’s enough to press me to pick Las Vegas to win and to cover, but with small confidence levels in each category.
- Pick to win: Las Vegas (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas (CL: 2)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The betting public just doesn’t seem to understand just how bad the Cardinals are. Arizona is getting good play out of Jacoby Brissett, but the rest of the Cardinals rate subpar or worse. That is especially true in special teams, in which Arizona is by far the worst team in the NFL. It’s more than enough to pick Jacksonville to win and cover despite this being a cross-country road trip for the Jaguars.
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- Pick to win: Jacksonville (CL: 7)
- Pick to cover the spread: Jacksonville (CL: 6)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles’ defense has been playing at an elite level of late. The Cowboys’ offense has shown it can turn any game into a scoreboard shootout. Those factors nullify each other and leave this to the Eagles’ offense versus the Cowboys’ defense. Philadelphia has mastered the art of not turning the ball over. Dallas has six giveaways over the past three games. That’s more than enough of an advantage to allow me to pick the Eagles to win and cover.
- Pick to win: Philadelphia (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Philadelphia (CL: 3)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
The Falcons’ defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone of late. That’s why Atlanta has allowed 119 points over the past four weeks. The Saints can’t move the ball on offense and have scored only 44 points over the past four weeks. The Falcons would likely be the pick were it not for Kirk Cousins having to start for the injured Michael Penix. Combine that with Tyler Shough doing a solid job under the guidance of Kellen Moore, and I’ll take New Orleans for the win and cover.
- Pick to win: New Orleans (CL: 3)
- Pick to cover the spread: New Orleans (CL: 1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
The Buccaneers have plenty of offensive talent, but they really aren’t structured to win high-scoring games. Tampa Bay is 4-0 when allowing 20 or fewer points and 2-4 when giving up more than 20 points. Matthew Stafford has the Rams offense playing at an exceptional level of late, but the Los Angeles defense may be playing better than that offense. It’s more than enough to send my win and spread picks to the Rams.
- Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 4)
- Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (CL: 1)
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)
The Panthers keep finding ways to win, yet the metric analysis for this matchup indicates that this is partially due to smoke and mirrors. Statistically speaking, Carolina is behind in multiple categories. San Francisco is also at home and finally has most of its offensive talent healthy.
- Pick to win: San Francisco (CL: 6)
- Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (CL: 4)
