Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Chelsea to win and under 4.5 goals at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betway)
1pt Moises Caicedo to score anytime at 9/1 (General)
0.5pt Caidedo to score anytime and be shown a card at 25/1 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Kick-off: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV: TNT Sports 1
Chelsea’s superb form appears to have gone a little under the radar; not with the bookies may I add, who make them general 13/10 favourites.
A slow start to the season, perhaps a result of a disrupted summer following their Club World Cup success, and a home defeat by Sunderland last month has caused a lopsided narrative to develop. In reality, the Blues have responded to an opening run of W3 D2 L3 with W8 D1 L1, all while managing significant injuries.
They now welcome a Barcelona team who may not quite offer such consistency, but certainly promise entertainment each time they take to the pitch.
There have been 70 goals (48 for and 22 against) in Barca’s 17 La Liga and Champions League fixtures this season, an average of 4.1 per game.
Their most recent European match was a 3-3 draw at Club Brugge, with the Belgian club exposing the defensive frailties of a Hansi Flick’s side by not only scoring three times but also by racking up chances equating to 2.14 expected goals (xG).
Barcelona have kept just four clean sheets this term and it feels highly unlikely a team as good as Chelsea won’t get on the board on Tuesday night, which is why backing MOISES CAICEDO TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/1 is advised.
The Ecuadorian was tipped by Mark Stinchcombe on Saturday but after returning late from international duty stayed on the bench for the 2-0 win at Burnley.
Only Enzo Fernandez (five) has scored more than Caicedo’s four goals for Chelsea in 2025/26, so he is as likely as anyone to be amongst the scorers against a fragile Barca defence. At a significantly bigger price than his team-mates with similar records, we should back him to find the net.
I’ll also take small stakes to the double of CAICEDO TO SCORE AND BE SHOWN A CARD which is 25/1 with bet365, and 33s with BetMGM.
The midfielder has been booked in five of his last six games for club and country, so is understandably only a best price of 12/5 to be shown a card.
I do think there is a way to get Chelsea on side by capitalising on the expectation that this will be a goalfest.
Barcelona’s matches against ‘stronger’ opponents in the UCL this term have both ended 2-1, a win at Newcastle and a home defeat by PSG, with late goals in both matches. Their recent Clasico defeat ended in the same scoreline.
Enzo Maresca has developed a habit of outsmarting opposition coaches in big matches, with no better example being the 3-0 Club World Cup final over PSG.
I’m willing to take a punt on the 23/10 about CHELSEA AND UNDER 4.5 GOALS which give us plenty of wriggle room about a home win.
Odds correct at 1540 GMT (24/11/25)
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