Bitcoin slipped back into a fragile posture on Wednesday, weighed down by a new bout of institutional anxiety and a technical setup that traders typically read as a warning. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has been grinding inside a bear flag, a formation that often signals sellers are merely catching their breath rather than backing off. With BTC still stuck under its declining 100-day and 200-day EMAs, the market is trading as if the recent recovery bounce may not hold.
TipRanks Black Friday Sale
The threat becomes sharper if the lower trendline gives way. A confirmed breakdown would activate a measured move toward roughly $77,400, a level that has been circulating widely among chart watchers. Bitcoin could escape this trap if it can clear the 50-4H EMA near $88,655 and the upper boundary of the flag around $90,000. But right now, the market tone is heavy, and investors are treating every rally attempt like a chance to reduce exposure before volatility returns.
Strategy–MSCI Tension Fuels Market Anxiety
Beyond the charts, traders are increasingly focused on the standoff between corporate Bitcoin giant Strategy (MSTR) and index provider MSCI (MSCI). The firm is evaluating whether companies with balance sheets dominated by digital assets should be excluded from key equity benchmarks. The decision, due by Jan. 15, 2026, is landing at a moment when crypto sentiment is already uneasy, amplifying worries about forced selling and spillover effects.
Analysts at CryptoQuant argue the stakes are high. “If MSTR is excluded from indexes such as MSCI, billions in automatic sales of its shares by passive funds would be triggered,” wrote GugaOnChain, warning that even if the direct hit falls on Strategy, the broader market “would interpret this as a sign of institutional attack on the company’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy.” JPMorgan (JPM) echoed this forced-selling risk, prompting pushback from some in the crypto community.
Accusations of a ‘Hit Job’ Add Fuel to the Fire
The narrative escalated on Tuesday when analyst Adrian accused JPMorgan of running what he called an “MSTR hit job” to steer investors toward the bank’s own leverage-based Bitcoin products. “They are trying to kill $MSTR to engineer a migration to their products for Bitcoin leverage exposure,” he wrote. The claim amplified the sense that institutional politics, not just price action, is weighing on the market.
Strategy attempted to calm nerves with a Nov. 26 statement saying that even in a deeper Bitcoin slide, the company’s liquidity remains intact. The firm said that if Bitcoin fell back to its approximate cost basis of $74,000, it would still maintain “a 5.9 times asset coverage relative to its convertible debt,” a leverage gauge it calls its BTC Rating. The reassurance eased little of the immediate fear, but it highlighted the firm’s confidence as volatility returns.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $87,777.63.
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