Why does everyone want Lane Kiffin? How CFP expansion could backfire and more in Mandel’s Mailbag
I love Thanksgiving. I love Rivalry Week. I don’t love coaches changing jobs before their season is over.
So curse you, Florida, LSU and Lane Kiffin, for raining on the first two things with the possibility of the third.
Why exactly is Lane Kiffin so sought-after? Why would even an LSU-caliber program want anything to do with someone with a history of awkward endings? In particular, this ending where he’s considering leaving a program about to play in the Playoff. — Sean F
You know the football gods have a sense of humor when, of all the coaches in America, the first one in position to leave a College Football Playoff participant before it begins is the very same guy who got fired by the Raiders after just 20 games, caused a campus riot when he left Tennessee, got fired on the tarmac at USC and managed to get fired by Nick Saban the week of the national championship game. There is no such thing as a drama-free Lane Kiffin job transition. (Except for FAU to Ole Miss.) But apparently Florida and LSU don’t care because they’re the ones stoking it.
Kiffin is a smart, innovative coach who’s elevated Ole Miss to a level it hasn’t enjoyed in more than 60 years. His .710 winning percentage is the highest since Johnny Vaught, who the Rebels’ stadium is named after. But I’d agree it’s strange that three SEC schools are all vying to make someone the highest-paid coach in the sport, who, as of this moment, has not yet fielded a Playoff team or national championship contender in 10-plus seasons as a Power 4/5 coach.
The three schools are treating this as if they’re Alabama hiring away Nick Saban from the Dolphins in 2007, Ohio State landing briefly-retired Urban Meyer in 2011, or Jim Harbaugh returning to Michigan in 2015. The first two had won national championships by then, and Harbaugh had fielded a top-5 team at Stanford and reached a Super Bowl with the San Francisco 49ers. Kiffin’s best season to date was either a No. 6 ranking at USC in 2011, when the program was under a postseason ban, or Ole Miss’s 11-win Peach Bowl champion in 2023.
And yet, it’s not like there’s another coach out there for the taking who is decidedly better. (No, Nick Saban is not coming back.) And as I’ve said all season, the demand for national championship-caliber coaches is far higher in this overloaded cycle than is the supply. So, that’s how we find ourselves with three schools competing to see who can make Kiffin a higher-paid coach than Kirby Smart or Ryan Day.
There’s a story every day about where Lane Kiffin is going to coach next year. I have a sneaky suspicion that whoever doesn’t get him will be happier in the long run. Who do you think Florida, LSU, and Mississippi should hire if Lane Kiffin selects one of the other options? – Jonathan D.
So, you’re saying you don’t want Florida to hire Lane? Can you get excommunicated from Gator Nation for saying that?
First of all, someone in the SEC is going to hire Tulane’s Jon Sumrall. It’s just a question of how high up on the pecking order. I don’t think Florida would, given the coach it just fired, Billy Napier, moved up from the Group of 5. And it wouldn’t be enough of a flex for the Louisiana governor and board. So let’s just say if Kiffin leaves Ole Miss, that’s who Ole Miss hires as his replacement. If Kiffin stays, then Auburn or Arkansas.
If I’m Florida, I call Louisville’s Jeff Brohm. Steve Spurrier and Meyer didn’t just win national championships; they were offensive trendsetters with fun, wide-open offenses. That mindset remains the ethos of the program. Brohm is one of those guys.
The problem, of course, is you have to convince him to leave his hometown and alma mater, where his entire family is royalty. But Louisville is still in the ACC. A high-profile SEC job where prior coaches won national titles would seem awfully appealing.
If he says no, then Washington’s Jedd Fisch, a Florida alum, is my Plan B.
I’m sure whoever I say for LSU will be deemed not splashy enough, but here we go: Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. A mid-30s up-and-comer who’s spent his entire career working for either Saban or Smart. Think he knows a thing or two about what it takes to build an elite SEC program?
No need for a Plan B, he’s coming if you call him.
But of course, that’s not how any of this is going to play out. In an alternate universe, here’s how I see this playing out: Kiffin decides he can’t abandon his Ole Miss on the eve of the Playoff. Florida moves on and hires SEC coach Eli Drinkwitz, primarily because Spurrier likes him, and LSU’s board members go full UNC and bring in Jon Gruden. Then, in his most elaborate troll yet, Kiffin waits until after Ole Miss is eliminated, then becomes the Raiders’ OC, reuniting with mentor Pete Carroll. Ole Miss, unprepared for a mid-January hire, panics and hires … Hugh Freeze.
Why is there so much grace for what Lane Kiffin is doing? Could you imagine if a top player on a Playoff team, like Jeremiah Smith, said they’re going to open up their recruitment? Imagine if he doesn’t leave the team, but takes recruiting trips at this stage of the season. Ohio State doesn’t want to lose him, but is clearly distracted by the whole thing. A player doing this would be vilified. Kiffin is going to get a raise. — Cullen
Oh, I’ve noticed. Though I wouldn’t say Kiffin is getting much grace from the public at large. Just on the set of certain ESPN studio shows.
It’s a perfect example of why College Sports Inc. finds itself in its current predicament, getting sued into oblivion and begging Congress for help. No matter how many billions in billable hours it costs them, the administrators just keep trying to make rules to keep the athletes under control while themselves engaging in the exact practices they frown on.
Less than two months ago, NCAA members pushed back the winter portal window (now the only portal window) from December to January to reduce players leaving their teams before the end of their seasons. But an SEC coach may leave his team before its season is over to jump to a different team in his own conference.
Meanwhile, how much grousing do we hear from coaches about tampering? Schools reaching out to their players during the season, agents shopping them around, etc.? Wisconsin even sued Miami, alleging it tampered with cornerback Xavier Lucas while he was under a binding NIL contract with Wisconsin. But Oklahoma State just hired North Texas coach Eric Morris before his team’s season is over. Pretty sure he’s under contract, too.
I’m not saying the players should have zero restrictions on their movement. But the fact administrators made it more difficult to do so, at the exact same time they’ve apparently abandoned any remaining “rules” about when coaches change jobs, is incredibly on brand.
Lane Kiffin’s situation exposes the double standard in how programs treat coaches switching teams compared to players. (Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
Hey, Stew, do the fine folks of Columbus, Ohio, come after Ryan Day with pitchforks if he loses to Michigan again in the Big House this weekend? — James C.
Never say never, but as of now, it does not feel like things would escalate that far, no. A lot has changed over the last 365 days. Day not only won a national championship, but also has not lost a game since last year’s game against Michigan.
Last year’s loss made for a perfect storm of backlash. Ohio State had made such a big deal about spending $20 million to bring back all those seniors, and add Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins and Caleb Downs. They’d already lost to Oregon, and now they’d done the unthinkable. Against a 6-5 Wolverines team with a non-functional offense. Throw in Michigan having just won the national championship, the flag-planting incident, the pepper spray, etc. It was Day’s absolute worst nightmare.
Whereas Michigan this year is a top-20 team with a functioning, albeit injury-riddled offense. The game is in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes may be without one, or both, of Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State fans will still be ticked off if they lose, but it doesn’t feel like a crisis. At least to me. But I’m not a Buckeye.
Day was always going to get a one-year honeymoon after last year’s title run. Get back to me in 2026, though, if they do lose this one.
In Sunday’s Final Thoughts column, you called the Big 12 “the Rodney Dangerfield of Power 4 conferences.” What comedians would you compare each of the other Power 4 conferences to? — Chris
@Chris A. Danny McBride – SEC. — Anonymous
That is such a perfect response, I would not be able to top it with one of my own.
Commenters, have at it on the ACC and Big Ten.
Mathematics is pretty simple, and expanding the Playoff will only create an even bigger logjam at a lower tier with even more teams being “unjustly” left out. Like many things, the knee-jerk solution often only exacerbates the problem. Doesn’t playoff expansion create even more pressure to “win now or else” and increase the midseason instability that we are experiencing? — Bo H.
Yes. Yes, it does.
Ralph Russo and I published a story Monday about the Big Ten’s newest Brainchild, a potential 24-team Playoff, and why it may be gaining more traction than you might think. A big reason, among ADs, is precisely what you suggested: In a Playoff-or-bust world, we need to include more schools so that the definition of a successful season isn’t so narrow.
But that assumes fans will be content with their coach just making the Playoff, even if their team still isn’t that good. If Brian Kelly goes 8-4 every year, makes a 24-team Playoff every year, but loses in the first round, you think LSU fans would be any happier with that than going 8-4 and making the Citrus Bowl? Penn State fired James Franklin at 3-3 because the season was effectively over. Now, do they fire him at 3-2 in hopes the interim coach can turn things around in time to finish 8-4 and make the Playoff?
Another big collective angst we wrote about is that nobody trusts the selection committee. Hence, Tony Petitti’s insistence that a 16-team field consist primarily of automatic berths based on conference standings. But the SEC has made it clear it is not going to willingly give away potential at-large berths. And no matter how big or small the field, there will never be a 100 percent objective method for selecting participants.
The FCS announced its own 24-team bracket on Sunday. Guess how it picked the teams? A selection committee.
To me, the most compelling argument for a bigger Playoff is that the other bowls have become so devalued at this point, why not turn them into more meaningful games? We could keep sending 9-3 Michigan and 8-4 Tennessee to the ReliaQuest Bowl, where the stands will be half full and the best players will opt out, or we could have Michigan host Tennessee at the Big House in a first-round game in early December.
But even then, I’d contend, be careful what you wish for. While you’d add four to eight exciting postseason games, you could devalue dozens and dozens of regular-season games, especially early in the season, with such a low barrier for entry. (Also, people are still very much watching those bowls on TV.)
Some form of bracket expansion is inevitable, but it’s a shame they’re rushing to do it so quickly before even giving people a chance to adapt to 12. If you go from four teams to 24 teams in the span of four years, you basically invented an entirely different sport.
See below.
Instead of having teams go to bowl games, could some of the first-round matchups in the larger field become on-campus matchups? (Adam Cairns / USA TODAY NETWORK)
With the release of the FCS playoff bracket, what would a 24-team playoff where every FBS conference champ gets an auto berth look like this year? — Peter L.
I figured that to do this right, I should project what the final version might look like, not where things stand today. Just know that it’s based on future results mostly going chalk.
The FCS format consists of 11 automatic berths and 13 at-large berths, which I adjusted to 10 and 14 for FBS. In FCS, the bottom eight teams are assigned to first-round matchups based on geography. I don’t think that would fly in FBS, where that pool includes both Texas and Western Kentucky, so I seeded all teams 1-24.
First round:
No. 17 USC at No. 16 Vanderbilt
No. 24 Western Kentucky at No. 9 Notre Dame
No. 21 James Madison at No. 12 BYU
No. 20 Tulane at No. 13 Utah
No. 18 Texas at No. 15 Tennessee
No. 23 Western Michigan at No. 10 Alabama
No. 22 Boise State at No. 11 Miami
No. 19 Michigan at No. 14 Virginia
For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume the higher-seeded team wins all of those.
Second round:
No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 1 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
No. 12 BYU at No. 5 Texas Tech
No. 13 Utah at No. 4 Georgia
No. 15 Tennessee at No. 2 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 11 Miami at No. 6 Oregon
No. 14 Virginia at No. 3 Indiana
Some of those second-round matchups would be great and make me realize I’d be open to 16 teams, provided it’s true seeding throughout.
But Alabama-Western Michigan? Notre Dame-Western Kentucky? I’d rather watch a show on Netflix. Maybe “Nobody Wants This.”
Stew: If Georgia Tech beats Georgia on Friday, do the Yellow Jackets have a chance to make the CFP? Do the Bulldogs have a chance to miss the CFP? Both? Neither? — Nick L.
Georgia would take a hit, but it would still have three Top 25 wins (No. 7 Ole Miss, No. 16 Texas and at No. 19 Tennessee) and both its losses to ranked teams (No. 10 Alabama and No. 23 Georgia Tech). Barring a blowout loss, the Dawgs would probably still be in, but fall to No. 10 behind Alabama, making them the last at-large team. So they’d be in danger of either BYU (if it wins the Big 12) or Michigan (if it beats Ohio State) jumping over them.
Georgia Tech has too much ground to make up after a three-game stretch in which it got steamrolled by NC State and Pitt and nearly lost to 1-10 Boston College. Plus, the committee generally seems to view 10-2 in the ACC or Big 12 as if it’s 9-3 in the SEC. But it’d be a heck of a win.
But, I do look forward to the mental gymnastics of folks insisting a three-point home win in a game played nearly three months ago is definitive proof that 10-2 Miami is better than 10-2 Notre Dame, but not 10-2 Georgia Tech beating 10-2 Georgia in a game played last week.
And with that — Happy Thanksgiving!
