Eagles clinch watch: ‘Magic number’ stuck at 4, Cowboys applying pressure down the stretch
There hasn’t been a repeat divisional champion in the NFC East since the Eagles won it four straight times from 2001 to 2004. In each of the last 20 seasons, we’ve seen the previous year’s division champion dethroned.
YearNFC East champion 2004Eagles 2005Giants 2006Eagles 2007Cowboys 2008Giants 2009Cowboys 2010Eagles 2011Giants 2012Commanders 2013Eagles 2014Cowboys 2015Commanders 2016Cowboys 2017Eagles 2018Cowboys 2019Eagles 2020Commanders 2021Cowboys 2022Eagles 2023Cowboys 2024Eagles 2025???
The Eagles were favorites to win the NFC East again in 2025, but so were most of the teams above that had a chance to repeat, but didn’t.
The folks at pro-football-reference keep a record of preseason Super Bowl odds for past seasons. The 2023 Eagles, 2022 Cowboys, 2018 Eagles, 2017 Cowboys, 2014 Eagles, 2011 Eagles, 2010 Cowboys, 2009 Giants, 2008 Cowboys, 2007 Eagles, and 2005 Eagles were all favored to repeat — or they had the best Super Bowl odds among the NFC East teams or whatever — but couldn’t close. Back in July, our Geoff Mosher went year-by-year looking at why each divisional winner failed to repeat.
Following their Week 11 Sunday win over the Detroit Lions, the NFC East standings looked like this:
NFC EastRecord Eagles 8-2 Cowboys 3-5-1 Commanders 3-8 Giants 2-9
The Eagles had five more wins than the Cowboys, and analytics site Inpredictable had the Birds as 99 percent likely to win the NFC East. There was a reasonable possibility that the Eagles could mathematically clinch the division before December.
Since then:
• The Cowboys convincingly beat a bad Raiders team Monday night of Week 11.
• Then they beat the reigning champion Eagles at home after falling behind 21-0.
• Then they beat the other team that played in the Super Bowl last season, the Kansas City Chiefs, in front of a national audience on Thanksgiving.
The standings now look like this:
NFC East Record Eagles8-3 Cowboys6-5-1 Commanders3-8 Giants2-9
The Eagles are still heavy favorites to break the NFC East division winner curse, but it’s now at least interesting. Assuming the Eagles don’t tie an opponent the rest of the season, tiebreakers won’t come into play between the Eagles and Cowboys, because the Cowboys tied the Packers Week 3. They simply have to win more games than the Cowboys.
If the Eagles win at least four out of their final six games, they will win the NFC East, no matter what the Cowboys do. Their “magic number” is four. Each Cowboys loss going forward reduces the number of games the Eagles must win by one.
Here are the Eagles’ and Cowboys’ schedules mashed together, from Week 13 on:
WeekMatchup Good Eagles result? 13 Chiefs at Cowboys ❌ 13 Bears at Eagles, Black Friday 14 Cowboys at Lions, TNF 14 Eagles at Chargers, MNF 15 Raiders at Eagles, Sun, 1:00 15 Vikings at Cowboys, SNF 16 Eagles at Commanders, Saturday 16 Chargers at Cowboys, Sun, 1:00 17 Cowboys at Commanders, Thurs (Christmas) 17 Eagles at Bills, Sun, 4:25 18 Cowboys at Giants, TBD 18 Commanders at Eagles, TBD
Again, the Eagles only need four ideal results (an Eagles win or Cowboys loss) in the remaining 11 games, and they will win the NFC East. Here’s a quick look at each teams’ remaining schedules, with their opponents’ records in parentheses.
Week EaglesCowboys 13 Bears (8-3) 14 At Chargers (7-4)At Lions (7-5)15 Raiders (2-9)Vikings (4-7)16 At Commanders (3-8)Chargers (7-4)17 At Bills (7-4)At Commanders (3-8)18 Commanders (3-8)At Giants (2-10)TOTAL 30-36 (0.455) 23-34 (0.404)
Here’s what the NFC standings look like after the Thanksgiving games:
Seed Team Record Conf record 1 Rams 9-2 4-2 2 Eagles 8-3 7-2 3 Bears 8-3 5-2 4 Buccaneers 6-5 4-3 5 Seahawks 8-3 4-3 6 Packers 8-3-1 6-2-1 7 49ers 8-4 8-2 8 Lions 7-5 4-4 9 Cowboys 6-5-1 3-4-1 10 Panthers 6-6 4-3 11 Falcons ☠️4-7 3-4 12 Vikings ☠️ 4-7 2-4 13 Cardinals ☠️3-8 3-5 14 Commanders ☠️ 3-8 1-6 15 Saints ☠️2-9 2-7 16 Giants ☠️2-10 1-8 ☠️ = Graveyard
The Eagles have a particularly important game against the Bears on Friday. If they are able to take care of business, they will be 9-3, with head-to-head wins over other NFC playoff contenders like the Rams, Bears, Buccaneers, Packers, and Lions. They will hold pretty much any seeding tiebreaker over the other likely NFC divisional winners.
If the Eagles’ offensive staff was holding anything back for a key moment in the season (consider me doubtful on that one), now would be the time to unleash it.
