PROVO — BYU’s dream season added another highlight as they went into Nippert Stadium and defeated Cincinnati 26-14 to get to a 10-1 record.
This was the LJ Martin game, with the senior running back rushing for 222 yards on 32 carries to place eighth on the school’s all-time rushing per game list.
The 6-foot-2, 220-pound Martin and the 6-foot-3, 230-pound quarterback Bear Bachmeier make up the most physical backfield tandem in the country — it looks like they have two linebackers running the ball.
The Cougars defense did their part and eliminated Cincinnati’s strong rushing attack. BYU held Cincinnati 100 yards below its season rushing average and made the Bearcats go pass-heavy — even picking off Brenden Sorsby once and keeping Cincinnati to just 14 points.
The win sets up a win-and-in season finale on Saturday. If BYU beats UCF, they will play in the Big 12 title game for a chance to earn the league’s automatic bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Just three years removed from a decade of conference independence, the past two seasons have been a remarkable rise for Kalani Sitake’s BYU program. BYU hosts UCF Saturday in LaVell Edwards Stadium (11 a.m. MST, ESPN2).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
3-year average (2022-24): BYU 49.3 (36th of 68 Power 4) | UCF 52.1 (29th)
2024 season: BYU 70.0 (10th) | UCF 49.3 (42nd)
2025 season: BYU 65.6 (17th) | UCF 40.6 (52nd)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.
In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish eighth in a wide-open Big 12 race. They have exceeded expectations and are 10-1, and control their path to the Big 12 title game, and thus, the playoff. BYU checks in at No. 17 in full-season Game Grader.
UCF re-hired Scott Frost, who led the Knights to an undefeated season and a controversial claim to a national title in 2017. After his failed tenure at his alma mater Nebraska, Frost returned to Orlando to try to revive his “UCFast” offense — this time with Power Four resources.
This has been a total transition season, and the Knights are 5-6 (2-6 Big 12), with their only league wins over 1-10 Oklahoma State and coaching change West Virginia. They are No. 52 in Game Grader but down to No. 61 over the last four games.
BYU with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
BYU offense: 28th of 68 Power 4 teams, 35th passing, 29th rushing
UCF defense: 25th of 68 Power 4 teams, 26th pass defense, 33rd rush defense
BYU simply imposed its will on Cincinnati’s defense. TJ Woods has built another stout offensive line, and they decided to just physically overwhelm Cincinnati to the tune of 265 rushing yards. BYU is one of the few offensive lines to rank in the top 25 of both my offensive line run push (No. 25) and my pass protection sack rate (No. 11).
Look for a similar game plan against the UCF defense, which rates middle-of-the-pack in all rushing defensive categories. In the coaching transition year, UCF had to find nine new defensive starters; and while this side of the ball ended up stronger than their offense, it is still just an average unit.
They are relatively better defending the pass than the run, so look for BYU to go run-heavy again here.
UCF with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics, per Pick Six Previews)
UCF offense: 48th of 68 Power 4 teams, 62nd passing, 26th rushing
BYU defense: 29th of 68 Power 4 teams, 11th pass defense, 31st rush defense
UCF was shutout at halftime by interim-led Oklahoma State, and their hometown crowd booed them off the field.
“Saying it wasn’t a great first half is probably an understatement,” Frost said.
After the break, the Knights scored 17 points to survive with a win, as quarterback Tayven Jackson hit Dylan Wade on an 84-yard score and then again for a short touchdown on fourth-and-goal.
Offense is Frost’s expertise but it has not clicked this season. They are ranked in the bottom 10 of my opponent-adjusted passing stat, and Jackson is ranked dead last in the Big 12 in QB rating. Jackson has thrown as many picks (8) as touchdowns (8) and is also last in yards per attempt in the league.
Look for BYU’s opportunistic, disruptive secondary to force multiple interceptions and limit UCF below their season averages. Jay Hill’s defense is packed with playmakers — Faletau Satuala, Isaiah Glasker, Jack Kelly, etc. — while UCF is looking for a spark.
After their strong performance last week, BYU’s opponent-adjusted rushing stat jumped up from 45th to 31st in the Power Four.
Game prediction
Everything is on the line for BYU: a Big 12 title spot, a boost to their playoff resume, and the first 11-win regular season since 2001. BYU is the stronger team on both sides of the ball and will flex their strength against UCF.
BYU 35 | UCF 17
