Tennessee 7th District 2025 Special Election Poll: Republican Van Epps and Democrat Behn Locked In Tight Race
Voters Split on Trump’s Job Performance as Economic Issues Top Voters’ Concerns
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the special election for US Congress in Tennessee’s 7th district finds 48% of voters support Republican Matt Van Epps and 46% support Democrat Aftyn Behn. Two percent plan to vote for one of three third-party candidates on the ballot, and 5% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, Van Epps’ overall support increases to 49%, and Behn to 47%.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%. Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
“There is also a stark gender divide; men break for Van Epps by nine points, 51% to 42%, whereas women break for Behn by six, 50% to 44%,” Kimball added.
Behn and Van Epps each have a 47% favorable rating among voters, and a 41% unfavorable rating.
“Similar to the gender divide on the ballot test, 54% of women have a favorable view of Behn, compared to 41% of men, and 52% of men have a favorable view of Van Epps, and 42% of women have a favorable view of Van Epps,” Kimball noted.
President Trump holds a 47% job approval rating among Tennessee 7th District voters, and a 49% disapproval rating.
“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said.
The economy is the top issue for 38% of Tennessee voters, followed by housing affordability (15%), healthcare (13%), threats to democracy (13%), immigration (6%), crime (5%), and education (5%).
Among those who say the economy is the top issue facing the state, 48% plan to support Van Epps and 44% Behn.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill Tennessee 7th District survey was conducted November 22-24, 2025. The sample of likely voters, n=600, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party registration based on voter file data and US Census parameters.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting a voter list of likely voters via MMS-to-web texts using voter lists provided by Aristotle, and online panel interviews provided by CINT. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with the exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found under Full Results. This survey was funded by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.
FULL RESULTS
