Dan Johnson details his top TreVeyon Henderson player prop for the NFL Week 14 matchup between the Patriots and the Giants on Monday Night Football.
Monday night in Foxborough gives us a contender on a five-game heater and a Giants team just trying to survive. New England’s offense keeps leaning deeper into TreVeyon Henderson, who turned two early starts into 244 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns, then handled 21 touches on about two-thirds of snaps in Cincinnati. Across from him is a Giants defense allowing 157.2 rushing yards per game and nearly six yards per carry to running backs, the softest matchup on the slate.
To wit—below, check out one of my favorite TreVeyon Henderson prop to consider from this Monday night tilt.
TreVeyon Henderson 90+ rushing + receiving yards (+105)
TreVeyon Henderson 90-plus rush and receiving yards at +105 is exactly the kind of aggressive spot I want. Over his first two starts as the lead back, he stacked 244 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns, a ridiculous 122 yards per game baseline. Even his “disappointing” Bengals game still produced 81 total yards on 21 touches and a 65% snap share, with Rhamondre Stevenson back.
The role is real. Against Cincinnati, Henderson logged 18 more carries and 12 more routes than Stevenson, owned a 64% to 31% snap edge, and drew four targets, trailing only Hunter Henry and Mack Hollins. That usage turned into his fourth straight game with double-digit fantasy points despite just 3.7 yards per carry behind an injured line that left Stevenson at 0.8. Volume plus passing-game work is exactly what we want on a rush-plus-rec ladder.
And this is the softest landing spot he’ll see. The Giants have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this year, about 29 per game, and a league-worst 6.2 yards per carry. Over the last five weeks they have given up an NFL-high 5.9 yards per carry and the second-most schedule-adjusted running back points, with the worst explosive run rate allowed and the most yards both before and after contact. ESPN’s projections back it up, slotting Henderson as RB10 at 16.7 fantasy points in a game they peg Patriots 30, Giants 22.
His three-game stretch already sits around 108 scrimmage yards per outing. With this matchup and this workload, I’m comfortable endorsing 90-plus at +105 as the primary play and treating anything above that as true ladder territory, not wishcasting.
