The Dallas Mavericks roll into Denver fresh off a gutsy 114-110 win over the Clippers — their first victory in five tries. Rookie phenom Cooper Flagg exploded for a career-high 35 points, while Klay Thompson added 23 (all in the second half), helping a depleted Dallas squad gut one out on the road. They’ll be shorthanded again tonight: Dereck Lively II, Dante Exum, and Kyrie Irving are out, with Daniel Gafford (ankle) and P.J. Washington (ankle) questionable. Anthony Davis is listed probable with left calf tightness.
Denver, meanwhile, is trying to snap a three-game home skid. The Nuggets are 14-5 overall and continue to ride Nikola Jokic’s nightly brilliance (28.9 PTS, 12.4 REB, 10.9 AST), but defense has slipped. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun will both miss this one, leaving an extra load on the wings and forwards. Peyton Watson has quietly stepped up in recent games and should see extended minutes again.
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Despite the line favoring Denver heavily, Dallas showed real fight in LA — and may have unlocked a higher-usage version of Flagg in the process. Let’s scan the lines in search of value.
Fixture: Dallas Mavericks (6-15, 2-5 away) at Denver Nuggets (14-5, 6-3 home)
December 1st | Ball Arena, Denver | 9:00 p.m. EST
TV: Altitude Sports (+3)
DraftKings Line as of 1am CST: DEN -10.5 | O/U 233.5 | ML: DAL +360 / DEN -500
Injury Report Highlights:
Mavericks:
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Dereck Lively: OUT (foot)
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Kyrie Irving: OUT (knee surgery)
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Dante Exum: OUT for season
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Daniel Gafford: DOUBTFUL (ankle)
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Anthony Davis: PROBABLE (calf)
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P.J. Washington: QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
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Brandon Williams: QUESTIONABLE (adductor)
Nuggets:
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Aaron Gordon: OUT (hamstring)
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Christian Braun: OUT (ankle)
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Julian Strawther: OUT (back)
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Nikola Jokic: PROBABLE (wrist)
Game Sides
Spread: Nuggets -10.5 vs. Mavericks
Lean: Mavericks +10.5
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The Nuggets are without Gordon and Braun, removing two of their best wing defenders.
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Dallas is obviously shorthanded, but still playing hard — and Flagg’s usage bump with Klay’s resurgence creates more offensive stability than the books may be pricing in.
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Backdoor cover risk is high with Denver’s 4th-quarter defense looking shaky in recent outings.
Total: 232.5
Lean: Over 232.5
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Denver games are turning into track meets lately.
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Dallas just played a 224-point game with the Clippers despite shooting 28% from three — and this Denver team is even softer defensively right now.
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No Gordon or Braun means worse perimeter resistance, which could give Klay Thompson and even Nembhard cleaner looks.
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If Flagg’s usage continues to rise, and Davis plays 24–28 minutes, Dallas might carry enough of the offensive load to push this over.
Player Props
Peyton Watson over 5.5 rebounds
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With Aaron Gordon ruled out, Peyton Watson should continue seeing increased minutes. His athleticism and motor make him a strong candidate to fly in for weakside rebounds against a shorthanded Dallas frontcourt. If he starts again, this line could move quickly.
Anthony Davis over 2.5 assists
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Davis returned to action on Friday and posted a 12-5-5 line in 28 minutes. That was his first game since late October, and even on limited minutes, he looked fluid. In 3 of 5 full games in October, he cleared this line — and one of the under games came in a 7-minute outing due to injury. The Mavs lack rim deterrence with Gafford and Lively both likely out or limited, and Davis has enough gravity to rack up dimes off short rolls or elbow sets. Even if he plays 26–30 minutes, this number is too low.
