NFL MVP odds: Drake Maye jumps Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott breaks through – The Athletic
With a bludgeoning of the New York Giants on Monday night, the New England Patriots moved to 11-2, the best record in the NFL, and Drake Maye leapfrogged Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to become a minus-odds favorite to win NFL MVP.
At -120, Maye is now better than a 50-50 favorite to win MVP, with Stafford dropping to +115 (46 percent implied chance of winning) from his preferred spot last week at -235 (implied odds of over 70 percent!).
These changes at the top are a good reminder that not only is it still too early in the season to be confident in who will be the MVP, but awards markets are inherently difficult to predict because they’re decided by voters rather than pure numbers. Which is the more compelling narrative: A veteran leading his team to a standout season in his 17th year in the league? Or a second-year quarterback at the helm of a former dynasty that is clearly reestablishing itself around him?
Or … is that … Dak Prescott’s music??? Or wait … Jordan Love, is that you?
Live NFL MVP odds
Prescott and Love making push
Prescott, at +1500 odds, is still a long way away from matching Maye’s and Stafford’s tier. But Prescott’s stellar performance this season has helped make the Dallas Cowboys contenders, despite their rocky start. A win on Thanksgiving Day against perennial MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes powered Prescott to third on the MVP odds board this week — all the way from 17th heading into Week 13.
His +25000 odds last week implied a less than 1 percent chance of snagging MVP. Now he’s a little over 6 percent. Still a long shot, but a massive shift nonetheless.
The Athletic’s Cowboys reporter Jon Machota gives some context to this standout season:
“In his 10th season, Dak Prescott has never played better,” Machota says. “The credit can be attributed to several areas, including good health, offensive continuity with head coach and offensive play-caller Brian Schottenheimer, and, of course, having arguably the NFL’s best wide receiver duo in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Prescott’s comfort level appears to be at an all-time high, especially when playing at home.
“In terms of the MVP race, the Cowboys would likely have to win the remainder of their games for Prescott to have a realistic chance. It’s not impossible. If they can beat the Eagles and Chiefs in a five-day span, they can beat any of their remaining opponents. Winning out would mean Prescott would have guided Dallas on an eight-game winning streak to finish the regular season 11-5-1. Doing that with the most popular sports franchise in the world would put Prescott in a great position to win his first MVP.”
But the Cowboys’ QB isn’t the only threat. Another quarterback coming off a dominant Week 13 is tied for third in the odds with him: Jordan Love. Love was in 10th with +6000 odds (1.6 percent chance) last week. Love has led the Green Bay Packers to an 8-3-1 start and has 2,794 yards and 19 touchdowns with just three interceptions. A solid win against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day certainly didn’t hurt his case.
The Packers have a brutal schedule ahead: vs. Chicago, at Denver, at Chicago and vs. Baltimore. That could spell death for Love’s MVP hopes — or be the stage on which he launches himself into favorite status.
Still Maye vs. Stafford at the top
With preseason favorites Patrick Mahomes (+10000), Josh Allen (+2500) and Lamar Jackson (+30000) falling each week, the two stable favorites since mid-November seem to have only each other to compete against on the odds board. Stafford leads the league in touchdowns (32) and Maye leads in yards (3,412).
The Patriots haven’t lost since September, though many argue they have a soft schedule to thank for that. But they have the benefit of their bye this coming week, then a confusing Buffalo at home (who they beat 23-20 in Buffalo in Week 5), then Baltimore, New York Jets, and Miami.
Stafford, meanwhile, is coming off a shock loss to the Carolina Panthers, putting the Rams at 9-3. They also have a tricky schedule ahead, with a division matchup against the Arizona Cardinals that they *should* be able to win easily, then Detroit and Seattle.
Will Maye hold onto the lead in the odds through the final stretch?
