Scottie Scheffler is a strong 6/4 favourite to win the Hero World Challenge, but Ben Coley is taking him on with two each-way selections.
Ten years since it first moved to the Bahamas, the Hero World Challenge will take place at Albany for the tenth time, and of the 20 players in this limited field, one man stands apart.
Whatever you think of this event, often criticised for handing out cheap OWGR points for those eligible and selected, it is fitting that Scottie Scheffler has dominated it. Second on each of his first two tries, his subsequent two have ended in wins by margins of three and six shots respectively as he carries a torch which once belonged to the tournament host, Tiger Woods.
Between the eras of Woods and Scheffler dominance, there was a straightforward way to whittle down contenders: ignore anyone who hasn’t played competitive golf lately. But as Woods before him so often did, Scheffler has proven impervious to those rules which govern the mere elite. He won this after almost three months off in 2023, he won it after more than three months off in 2024, and there’s every chance he wins it after a similar break to land the hat-trick in 2025.
Woods is the only other player to have bagged this title off such an absence and he did so comfortably, just as Scheffler has. And while the course has changed since then, it does appear that Albany plays to Scheffler’s key strength as Sherwood did Tiger’s, that is to say iron play is of paramount importance. Scheffler alone can’t tell us this – he’s just too good – but Tom Kim, Sepp Straka and Justin Thomas have completed the last two podiums. These are among the very best iron players in the world when firing.
Five par-fives hint that long driving ought to be just as useful, but I’m less sure of that by the year. Kim and Straka would be among the shorter hitters in their respective fields and when we look further back, wins for Henrik Stenson, Viktor Hovland and Hideki Matsuyama, plus the wide-margin lead blown by Collin Morikawa, pull me back towards the idea that the formula for beating Scheffler is, somehow, to do so at his own game. Good luck with that.
So why not back him? Well, because I don’t want to, and because the one player who has been backed off the boards since betting opened on Monday is the favourite. Now just 6/4, there are still 72 holes to overcome and the inherent randomness of this game, too. He does that regularly but there’s surely no value in the price, not when we last saw him playing poorly in the Ryder Cup.
My preference is for HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, whose A-game is second only to that of Scheffler.
Landing on it is the challenge but he was a brilliant winner of The Sentry in January, at a course with obvious similarities to this one, and Matsuyama is a former winner at Albany. Back in 2016, at the height of his powers, he led by seven shots going into Sunday and was able to afford a lacklustre final round without any real threat emerging.
Also fifth a year later but dead last in 2018, Matsuyama’s record here is a mixed bag but that’s exactly what you’d expect given his injury issues and the wide gap between the best and worst versions of him, especially on the greens. Hopefully, his relatively late-career boom on bermuda greens, seen via two wins in Hawaii and one in Tennessee, helps conjure another good putting week here.
Matsuyama is certainly sharp and in good form. He’s played four times since the end of the PGA Tour season and in fact, you have to go back to June for the last time he failed to crack the top 30 (albeit yes one of these was in a field of 30). Lately he’s been 13th at Wentworth, where he was in front at halfway, 20th in the Baycurrent Classic, seventh in Korea, then fifth back in Japan last time.
His approach play was firing again in the two of these four starts which come with strokes-gained data and with driver his one persistent problem for much of this year, the wide fairways of Albany do provide some comfort. There is nobody in this field more capable of going toe-to-toe with Scheffler and coming out on top and, as he’s played more golf than several above him in the betting, I rate him the clear value choice.
Cameron Young is tempting on a good debut here, his brave Ryder Cup singles exploits and the career-changing form he’d shown in the two months prior to it, but his approach play remains a potential area of concern. Plus, that point around winning this after an absence remains and while Scheffler has shown he can do it, for the mortals of the PGA Tour it must be considered a negative.
The same applies to Sam Burns so it’s two Europeans I like more, with JUSTIN ROSE narrowly preferred to Robert MacIntyre.
There’s no denying that MacIntyre has gone up another level this year, winning the Dunhill Links at St Andrews after an excellent Ryder Cup, but Rose has much more experience of Albany having formerly lived here in the Bahamas, and that tips the scales in his favour.
He’s also playing wonderfully well and has ever since mid-July, following sixth place in Scotland with 16th in the Open, then winning the FedEx St Jude Championship at big odds. Two more decent efforts followed despite some putting issues, then he faded from contention at Wentworth before again proving an invaluable part of Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup side.
It’s to Rose’s immense credit that he was able to take two months off yet still compete in a strong DP World Tour Championship, finishing 14th despite again failing to make his share of putts, and his approach play in particular has been catching the eye throughout this run. Also better off the tee in Dubai, it’s been a really solid four months, ample evidence that he can remain competitive against even the very best in the sport.
Rose spent last week playing in a friendly but competitive event he hosted at Pebble Beach and might now be ready to win a Hero Challenge which, bar the favourite, is much weaker than several past renewals. During them he’s built up a good Albany record which reads 13-WD-5-3-5-9-8, and even on that modest debut he set a new course record with a closing 62.
More recently he has fired final rounds of 65, 65, 66 and 66 on his last four visits having given himself too much to do, but the latest of these came after a month away when his form had been poor, and I don’t think he’s been better prepared since 2018, when he stormed home for third place.
Rose knows Albany better than anyone and granted a better start should be a factor. He’s been producing those regularly of late, too.
I hope Jordan Spieth outperforms expectations on his first start since August but that’s a big gap to overcome and the only other player who made serious appeal was Brian Harman, who endured an immensely frustrating RSM Classic. Harman could’ve been six-under through six on day one but didn’t make a putt, eventually missing the cut narrowly despite his long-game appearing to be in excellent shape.
He’s played reasonably in two starts here, he’s got form at Kapalua, bermuda greens are a positive, and if like me you feel distance could be overrated at Albany, he begins to make sense. Certainly, his iron play is sharp right now and if the putter warms up there’s every chance he finishes closer to first than last, but I’d rather stick to two classier players with higher ceilings in a bid to turn over the favourite.
For those who simply can’t see past Scheffler, he’s 28/1 to beat Matsuyama and 33/1 to beat Rose with bet365, or you can take shorter prices in either order. Coral, Ladbrokes, Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power also offer ‘without Scheffler’ markets, with Matsuyama 12/1 and Rose 14s, both of which represent great value to four places.
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Posted at 13:00 GMT on 02/12/25
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