The Colts have to break a curse to take back control of the AFC South.
Indianapolis has lost three of its last four, allowed Jacksonville and Houston to come roaring back in the division race and faces the toughest December schedule of any team in the NFL.
Beginning with a place that has been so difficult for Indianapolis to win that it defies explanation. The Colts take on the Jaguars at 1 p.m. Sunday at Jacksonville’s Everbank Stadium (WTTV-4), a house of horrors for everyone in Indianapolis.
The Colts (8-4) haven’t won a game in Jacksonville since 2014, back when wide receivers coach Reggie Wayne was still catching passes from a young, up-and-coming quarterback named Andrew Luck. The Jaguars (8-4) have to be licking their chops, knowing a win puts them in the driver’s seat for the division.
What’s wrong with Jonathan Taylor?
1. Jonathan Taylor’s MVP campaign has hit a rough patch at the same time Indianapolis has hit the skids. Taylor’s 244-yard outburst in Berlin obscured the fact that Taylor didn’t hit the 100-yard mark against Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Houston, and it’s not entirely because the Colts didn’t run the ball enough. Taylor, who is averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season, didn’t break the 4-yard mark in any of those three games, and now he faces a Jacksonville defense that leads the league in rushing, giving up only 82.4 rushing yards per game. Only three teams — Carolina, Kansas City and Houston — have rushed for more than 100 yards against Jacksonville.
2. Jacksonville linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd are speedy, aggressive players, the kind who have given Indianapolis center Tanor Bortolini trouble the past couple of weeks. Bortolini’s ability to make blocks on the second level has been key to Taylor’s success this season, but the Colts have struggled against linebackers during the rough patch.
3. Lloyd’s four interceptions lead a Jaguars pass defense that has produced 13 interceptions this season, tied for the second-best mark in the NFL. Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has avoided the big mistake the past two weeks, but Jacksonville’s linebackers and secondary will test that streak, always looking for chances to make a game-changing play.
Can Colts take advantage of Jaguars’ lack of a pass rush?
4. For the first time in weeks, the Indianapolis offensive line isn’t facing a pass rush with the ability to take over a game. Jacksonville has just 24 sacks, and its sacks-per-pass-attempt percentage of 5.27% ranks 28th in the NFL. Jaguars defensive end Josh Hines-Allen typically finds a way to get to the quarterback against Indianapolis, but he’s had little help. Jones should have time to throw, even though the Jaguars are blitzing 27.9% of the time, 12th-most in the NFL according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Hines-Allen primarily rushes off the left side, across from right tackle Braden Smith, but he’ll switch to the blind side if called upon.
5. Jacksonville has given up 230.1 passing yards per game, 23rd in the NFL, but the Jaguars rank eighth in yards per dropback, giving up only 6.07 yards per pass. What that means is Jacksonville tries to force a team to dink and dunk its way down the field. Slot receiver Josh Downs and outside target Michael Pittman Jr. each had key missed opportunities against the Texans last week; Indianapolis needs them to be sure-handed to keep moving the chains.
6. Rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who has 58 catches for 684 yards and four touchdowns this season, gets a favorable matchup against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the second-most catches and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season.
7. As solid as Jacksonville’s overall numbers have been, the Jaguars defense has struggled in both third down (39.87%, 21st in the NFL) and the red zone (60%, 23rd). Even after the offensive struggles of the past two weeks, Indianapolis is still 11th in the NFL on third down and sixth in the red zone, a potential advantage for Shane Steichen.
8. The Colts made a move at kicker this week, signing former Saints kicker Blake Grupe to take over for Michael Badgley. Grupe struggled in New Orleans this season, missing eight field goals, but he does have a bigger leg than Badgley.
9. Jacksonville’s punt coverage has been excellent, but the Jaguars do rank 23rd in the NFL against opposing kick returners, a potential weak spot against a Colts team that averages 28.5 yards per kickoff return. Anthony Gould and Ameer Abdullah should look for chances to make a splash.
Is Daniel Jones hurt?
10. From what he said last week, Jones felt better after a week’s rest on his fractured fibula. Indianapolis continues to say the injury isn’t affecting the quarterback, and he turned in arguably his best game in the past month against Houston. But the Colts are hoping he’ll continue to get better, potentially allowing him to move a little more in the pocket against Jacksonville.
11. Even without star cornerback Sauce Gardner available, Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence should give the Indianapolis secondary a chance to make plays on Sunday. Lawrence is completing just 59.7% of his passes, dragging his yards per attempt down to 6.7. He’s also tossed 11 interceptions, third-most in the NFL, and the Colts have recorded at least one takeaway in every game this season.
12. Lawrence will also take sacks. The Jacksonville quarterback has been sacked 32 times this season, posted a sack rate of 8.1% that ranks the Jaguars 22nd in the NFL and averages 2.83 seconds from snap to throw, 19th in the NFL. Making matters better for the Colts, Lawrence might be playing without left tackle Walker Little, who suffered a concussion last week against the Titans. The question is whether the Indianapolis edge rush can take advantage. Laiatu Latu, the player the Colts have counted on to take the pass rush to the next level this season, has been up and down, dominant in one game and almost invisible in the next. With defensive tackle DeForest Buckner still out of action, Latu must emerge as a consistent force off the edge to pressure Lawrence into mistakes.
13. Lawrence hasn’t been blitzed much this season, seeing five or more rushers on 24.7% of his dropbacks, a number that ranks 24th in the NFL. His scrambling ability — Lawrence has 57 carries for 235 yards — gives the quarterback an out against pressure, but with Buckner unavailable and the edge pressure inconsistent, Anarumo might dial up a few more blitzes than Lawrence has seen to this point.
14. Jacksonville has been inconsistent at wide receiver this season. Jakobi Meyers, brought over in a trade at the deadline, has 18 catches for 245 yards and two touchdowns since being picked up from the Raiders, but Brian Thomas Jr. (32 catches, 448 yards, one touchdown) hasn’t been the same this season, and Parker Washington suffered a hip injury last week that could affect his availability against the Colts.
15. Jacksonville’s offense has been abysmal on third down, converting 35.48% to rank 26th in the NFL. Indianapolis could use the help; the Colts defense ranks 27th on third down, allowing conversions on 43.14% of the snaps.
16. Jaguars running back Travis Etienne is having a good season, racking up 843 yards, five touchdowns and 4.7 yards per carry, but overall, Jacksonville is not much of a threat on the ground outside of an Etienne bust here or there. The Jaguars rank 11th in rushing yards (123.3 per game), but they’re only 19th in yards per carry (4.23). Indianapolis linebackers Zaire Franklin and Germaine Pratt must keep Etienne from getting into the open.
17. Jaguars kicker Cam Little has a rocket launcher of a leg. Little has made 19 of 23 field goals this season, including 5 of 7 from beyond 50, and he broke the NFL record by blasting a 68-yard kick through the uprights against Las Vegas.
Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.
