Met Éireann delivers first Christmas weather forecast with unsettled ‘Atlantic regime’ ahead

Bad news for Christmas shoppers – expect a weekend washout

An awfully wet forecast set to bring over 4mm of rain lashing down on the southwest on Sunday(Image: WXCharts)

After some drama from Storm Bram, Met Éireann has delivered its first verdict on what to expect during Christmas week – and a dismal weather forecast with more stormy conditions over the coming days. There’s little chance of a white Christmas, as it looks like it’ll stay unsettled right up until slightly calmer Christmas week with a “mixed forecast.”

The national forecaster updated the long-range outlook this week, giving an early indication of what to expect. For the week of Monday, December 22, to Sunday, December 28, Met Éireann is predicting some “changeable conditions.”

“The weather over Ireland is forecast to be mixed,” it says, “The very unsettled weather of the preceding week is likely to give way to more changeable conditions with dry periods interspersed with wetter spells. Rainfall totals during the week are forecast to be around the seasonal norm. Mean air temperatures are likely to trend near the climatological average.”

Snowy Christmases are very rare in Ireland. As the Irish Mirror reports, the last genuine white Christmas was 15 years ago, when Ireland woke up to the magical sight of a country blanketed in snow in 2010. After what will likely be more of a grey Christmas this year, the early days of January look set to bring High Pressure and calmer conditions for the start of 2026.

While the extended-range forecast can provide insight into weather patterns, Met Éireann warns that it should not be used for specific planning purposes, as it generally has low skill compared to the 10-day forecast. Forecasts beyond one week are increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere.

Before Christmas, conditions are forecast to be pretty unfavourable for seasonal shoppers. Forecasters predict that wet and windy weather will continue for several days. A “mobile Atlantic regime will dominate for the rest of the week and into next week,” the forecast says, with unsettled weather lasting over the weekend. Met Éireann has described the forecasted total amount of rainfall as “well above normal across the country”.

This weekend in particular, expect a washout. There is a miserably wet forecast over the next few days, set to bring over 4mm of rain lashing down on the southwest on Sunday.

Here’s the latest for Cork and Munster:

Today – Cloudy to start with outbreaks of rain and drizzle moving in from the west early on, heavy at times. Rain will gradually clear through the late afternoon with highs of 7 to 11 degrees, coolest on west Atlantic coasts. Feeling breezy too fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds. A chilly night tonight with mostly dry and clear spells, apart from a few isolated showers affecting coastal fringes at first. Showers will become more widespread towards morning. Lows of 0 to 4 degrees in light to moderate southerly winds.

Tomorrow – A crisp start with bright spells and scattered showers. Turning heavy at times with the chance of hail or isolated thunderstorms. Showers will gradually clear throughout the evening with plenty of clear and sunny spells developing. Highs of 7 to 11 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds. Scattered showers overnight, with some dry conditions in parts with plenty of longer clear spells. Lowest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees in moderate to fresh southwesterly winds.

Saturday – Dry and breezy to start with bright spells. Cloud from the west will move in early on with outbreaks of rain and drizzle. Throughout the day, this rain will gradually spread across the country, with heavy falls at times bringing spot flooding. Highest temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees in fresh to strong and gusty south to southwest winds, with gales on Atlantic coasts. A rather wet and blustery night with widespread spells of rain, heaviest along Atlantic coasts. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees with moderate to fresh southwesterly winds, strong and gusty near coasts.

Sunday – Some uncertainty to the detail, but indications currently suggest a wet and blustery day with further outbreaks of rain, with the heaviest falls over parts of the west and southwest. Highest temperatures of 11 to 14 degrees in fresh to strong southwesterly winds. Rain will gradually clear to the southeast Sunday night with scattered showers following in behind and clearer spells developing. Lowest temperatures of 4 to 7 degrees, in moderating southwesterly winds.

Next week – There is uncertainty in the forecast, but currently, there is a signal that unsettled weather will persist. Monday is expected to start off mostly dry, with scattered showers. Conditions will deteriorate early on as rain from the south will gradually spread northeastwards across the country for the day.