In a year with its fair share of disappointment so far for the Toronto Maple Leafs, Easton Cowan has been a pleasant surprise.
Toronto’s first-round pick from 2023 wasn’t even supposed to make the team this season, but has arrived earlier than expected. Cowan has been a daily difference-maker, forcing his way up the lineup in his rookie season in a way that many hoped for, though few could’ve realistically imagined. He looks like a keeper and the numbers are starting to bear that out.
Through the first 22 games of Cowan’s career, he’s scored nine points, a modest amount made more impressive within the context of his five-on-five ice-time. Cowan’s 1.96 points per 60 minutes ranks 109th among forwards this season — and right in line with age-20 seasons from Mitch Marner (2.03) and Matthew Knies (1.99). Even better is his on-ice impact with 54.5 percent of expected goals with a relative impact of 0.69 per 60, both of which currently lead the team. They would also be the highest rates of any age-20 season from a Leafs forward over the last 20 years. To put it succinctly, Cowan looks like a player.
Cowan has obviously had a lot more help to get there than past Toronto young guns and that should be accounted for. But when you put it all together, he still comes out looking like something the Leafs desperately needed going into the season: a true top-six forward. His current projected Net Rating sits at plus-two, 158th among forwards and firmly in second-line territory.
If that’s what Cowan already might be, even more exciting is what he could become. His current upside looks a little higher than Knies’ did as a rookie when his projected Net Rating was minus-2.2. We’ve all seen how that’s turned out.
Obviously, Cowan’s sample size of NHL work is quite small, but from that, it’s still possible to establish a range of outcomes based on players most similar to Cowan at the same age. Based on that, Cowan projects to become a high-end second-line talent — with some top-line upside. Based on Cowan’s comps, the chances he ends up as anything less than a top-six player are only about one in five.
With such a small body of work, the range of outcomes for Cowan is large. Some players started strong and busted out (Marko Dano), others who never quite took a big leap (Boone Jenner), and there are players who became legit stars (Mika Zibanejad). For Cowan, there are a lot more players who grew into legitimate difference-makers than not. The most interesting of all from a Leafs perspective might be the one that got away: Seth Jarvis.
That’s probably a pie-in-the-sky fantasy still, but the fact Cowan is establishing himself early like this offers more potential for that fantasy to become reality, more than if he were struggling out of the gate as many 20-year-olds do. The Jarvis comp may seem a bit too optimistic, but the two stood out in the same way early: defensively. That’s usually rare for a young rookie and it should be noted that Toronto’s best work on the shutdown line with Auston Matthews this year featured Cowan on it.
As nice as that would be for the Leafs, Jarvis obviously represents a best-case scenario that Cowan has a lot to prove to reach. There are a lot of paths ahead, but the one that’s always made the most sense for Cowan is the one that appears to be his current baseline. Second-line upside is where our prospect expert, Scott Wheeler, is still penciling him in. After looking at the comp list, Wheeler honed in on Derek Stepan as the fairest potential path. For a player taken at the end of the first round, that would be a big win for Toronto.
We’ll see how the rest of Cowan’s rookie season unfolds and where that points his career. But through the first 22 games, it’s easy to be optimistic. Cowan’s numbers have all the traits of a player who can one day move the needle — and he might already be there.
Stock Watch
The biggest changes in projected value over the last 10 games.
Risers
Scott Laughton
Net Rating: up 4.1
After returning from injury, Scott Laughton has looked a lot closer to the player the Leafs thought they were getting at the trade deadline.
A good player? Not really. A needle-mover? No. A player worth trading a first-round pick for? Definitely not. What the Leafs are getting, though, is a genuinely capable depth piece. Over the last 10 games, Laughton has chipped in three goals and won his battles at five-on-five. His 53 percent xG rate was among the team’s best and he outscored opponents heavily.
What that means for his projection is that he no longer looks like the scrubby fourth-liner he seemed to be through the first 35 games of his Leafs tenure. Laughton’s projection is back up to third-line calibre, which has given Toronto’s bottom six a bit more heft than usual. It’s something!
Troy Stecher
Net Rating: up 4.0
When the Leafs picked up Troy Stecher off waivers on Nov. 15, he looked like a stopgap solution on the right side with so many defensemen on the shelf. He had the profile of a typical third-pair defenseman that doesn’t offer much upside. In the 11 games he’s played for the Leafs since, Stecher has miraculously felt like a season-saving addition. In just 11 games, Stecher has gone from an option on the third pair when everyone is healthy to a stabilizing force in the top four. On a shutdown pair that plays tough minutes next to Jake McCabe, Stecher is proving himself as a significant upgrade.
In 95 minutes together, the pair has earned 52.5 percent of expected goals and outscored opponents 6-2. That’s a big step up from both Simon Benoit (46 percent xG, outscored 7-4) and Brandon Carlo (37 percent xG, outscoring 3-2) in the absence of Chris Tanev.
Stetcher has a long track record well below this level — it’s the reason he was on waivers in the first place. That makes him a difficult bet to continue playing like a top-pair defenseman. But if this sudden surge is even half real, it completely changes the complexion of Toronto’s blue line. When fully healthy, more Stecher and less Benoit looks like a game-changer.
Easton Cowan
Net Rating: up 3.7
Some of the best five-on-five metrics on the team, great defensive numbers, a three-minute bump in ice-time and a solid five points in 10 games. All of that contributed toward a healthy bump from a top-nine evaluation to a passable top-six player. Cowan is coming into his own.
Fallers
Nicholas Robertson
Net Rating: down 2.0
After rising tremendously in November, Robertson found himself back in the press box this week against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That’s for good reason after scoring just a single goal over the previous eight games and earning one of the worst xG marks on the team at 41.8 percent. Robertson’s ice time continuously dwindled as he found himself on the fourth line, a difficult spot for him to play his game.
Robertson can be an effective scorer and showed as much earlier this season, but there’s a reason he’s difficult to trust in the top six. That makes him a tough player to fit in the lineup, especially with the emergence of Cowan and the stellar play of the third line.
Stars and Scrubs
The top and bottom three Leafs over the last 10 games, relative to expectations.
Stars
Troy Stecher
Net Rating: +1.4
Who knows if Stecher can keep this up, but he was arguably Toronto’s best defenseman over the last 10 games with a plus-1.4 Net Rating. Stecher played almost 21 minutes per night and was one of Toronto’s top play-drivers in a shutdown role. The Leafs struck gold here.
Nicolas Roy
Net Rating: +1.8
Now this is the Roy many expected the Leafs were getting. Roy chipped in on offense with six points in eight games and the new-look third line was a revelation at five-on-five, outscoring opponents 7-0 in Roy’s minutes. That’s with a heavy helping of defensive-zone starts. The next step: soaking up some tougher competition to free up the top line a bit more.
Dennis Hildeby
GSAx: +7.5
It can’t be understated how strong Dennis Hildeby has been this season. Over the last 10, he’s been incredible, saving over one goal above expected per game with a nasty .958 save percentage. It’s a small sample, but if Hildeby can keep this up, the Leafs will have a first-world problem on their hands with their three-headed monster in net. (Sidebar: What the hell were the Leafs thinking with Cayden Primeau to start the season?)
Scrubs
John Tavares
Net Rating: -0.2
After carrying the team through the first 20 games, there’s no hard feelings for Tavares cooling down since with just five points in 10 games, well below his usual point-per-game standard. Tavares was one of just three Leafs who was outscored over the last 10 games.
William Nylander
Net Rating: +0.5
When Nylander is on, few players can match his dynamic electricity. When he’s off, few players can feel more frustrating. Nylander has disappeared a bit over the last week and has been noticeably poor defensively — even by his standards. While the team greatly improved defensively over the last 10, Nylander looked noticeably worse with 3.4 xGA/60. A pair of points against the Sharks helped soften the blow.
Calle Järnkrok
Net Rating: -1.2
Tough to keep harping on the guy, but it’s becoming more and more clear that Järnkrok just isn’t a viable option for this team’s forward group. Järnkrok floated in and out of the lineup, where he went pointless and was arguably the team’s worst defensive forward given the context of his sheltered minutes.
Quick Questions
A look at where the Leafs are and where they’re going.
Are the Leafs better than they were 10 games ago?
Change in Offensive Rating: -0.4
Change in Defensive Rating: +7.6
Change in Net Rating: +7.2
Technically yes, but it’s entirely driven by lineup decisions. The Leafs go up by 7.8 goals on the assumption that Stecher supplants Benoit on a healthy Leafs blue line and Järnkrok isn’t among the Leafs’ top 12 forwards. Those are probably safe assumptions, but they aren’t exactly guarantees. That’s especially true with increasing injury uncertainty with Tanev, Carlo, and now Oliver Ekman-Larsson. That means the rest of the team is exactly in line with where they were 10 games ago.
The Leafs were on a stronger track toward being back going 5-1-1 against a tough schedule with a solid 51.6 xG rate, but took a hit after a loss to the Sharks where they were shockingly outplayed and blew yet another multi-goal lead. With a Net Rating of plus-15.1, the Leafs are closer to where they started the season (plus-29.3), but still a ways away. And there are still a lot of question marks about whether what the Leafs are doing will work.
Where do the Leafs stand in the Atlantic?
Chances of making the playoffs: 50.5 percent
Chances of winning the division: 4.0 percent
Most likely landing spot: 2nd
After a strong stretch, the Leafs are back in the thick of the playoff hunt and right on the playoff cut line. The Lightning are probably a safe bet to win the division, but after that, the Leafs are right in the thick of it. The East is extremely tight and things can change quickly, but trending back of late is a good sign the Leafs can still squeeze into the playoffs, though it likely won’t be in their usual spot.
Are the Leafs a contender?
Chances of 105 points or more: 6.1 percent
Chances of advancing to the conference finals: 9.1 percent
League-wide ranking: 11th in Net Rating, 14th in projected points
The answer is still no, but it’s a less emphatic “no” this time around. There’s still a large gap between the Leafs and the absolute best teams in the league, but the Leafs are charting a course back toward the next tier — even if it’s been a bit bumpy along the way. The Leafs have had some more inspiring efforts of late against stronger teams that allow some room for optimism, but they need to find a way to keep it up for a lot longer. For Toronto to get back inside the contender’s circle, consistency will be the key and the loss against the Sharks felt like a step back in the wrong direction. This recent run of improved play needs to be a stepping stone, not a blip.
Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and Hockey Stat Cards
