The Nevada men’s basketball team hosts Duquesne on Saturday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Duquesne (6-4) at Nevada (7-3)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m.
Where: Lawlor Events Center (11,546 capacity)
TV/Radio: Nevada Sports Net/95.5 FM
Online: NevadaSportsNet.com
Betting line: No line listed yet
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Win the free throw line: Both of these teams do a good job of getting to the foul line with Duquesne averaging 24.9 attempts per game and Nevada at 27.1 per contest. The Dukes have had an issue knocking those freebies, hitting just 68.8 percent of their free throws to Nevada’s 74.2 percent. But Duquesne’s offensive strength is around the rim with the Dukes making 62.5 percent of their two-point shots with almost all of those in the paint (Duquesne rarely takes mid-range shots). Nevada needs to be physical defending the interior without getting into foul trouble against a team that will need an advantage from the free throw line to spring the upset.
2. Transition defense: Duquesne is the quickest-paced team Nevada has faced this season with the Dukes ranking 24th in tempo among 365 Division I schools. The Wolf Pack has played only one top-100 tempo team this season in Southern Illinois (96th). Most of the opponents Nevada has faced have been 200-plus in tempo, which is where the Wolf Pack resides (248th). Duquesne wants to get the game moving fast, which has come with issues. The Dukes turn the ball over 15.7 times per game, which is a bottom-25 mark in the nation. This fast-paced, high-error system could play into Nevada’s favor, as the Wolf Pack has been better this year creating turnovers and running in transition off those. But Nevada must have strong on-ball transition defense to slow down Duquesne’s attacks to the rim.
3. More is less from three: A funny thing has happened as Nevada has curbed its 3-point attempts – more are going in. The Wolf Pack averaged 23 3-pointers per game in its first three contests and made just 26.5 percent of them. Since then, Nevada has averaged 16 3-pointers per game and hit them at a 42.7 percent rate. Less has been more for the Wolf Pack from beyond the arc, which has proven it can make 3-pointers but should be overly reliant on that shot. Moving the ball within the offensive system and being aggressive toward the basket has been a winning formula to create open threes, which Nevada is now knocking down. The Wolf Pack is up to 36.8 percent shooting from three (68th in the nation) but hasn’t attempted more than 20 threes in any of its last seven games. That’s the formula.
Prediction
Nevada 80, Duquesne 66: The Wolf Pack looks to close non-league play at 8-3, which would be a big win after Nevada almost lost to Pacific and Southern Illinois (and did lose to UC Davis) in the first half of non-conference. But Nevada has elevated its level of play over the second half of non-league and is coming off four strong performances in the last five games. Duquesne, meanwhile, is 1-3 against teams with winning records, the victory coming over Stony Brook. The Dukes lost to Boise State, from the Mountain West, by 18 points on Wednesday. Nevada should post a similar result in this one. Season record: 7-3
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
