Our UFC Fight Night predictions expect Cezary Oleksiejczuk to shine in his UFC debut against Cesar Almeida.
Dec 13, 2025 • 09:00 ET
• 4 min read
Photo By – Imagn Images. Cezary Oleksiejczuk fights against Tom Breese during the Fight Nation Championship 21 event in Croatia.
Rising prospect Cezary Oleksiejczuk makes his UFC debut against veteran Muay Thai striker Cesar Almeida in one of our featured betting attractions on this weekend’s UFC Fight Night undercard.
Oleksijczuk is a -210 favorite while Almeida is a +165 underdog. Here are my Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas.
Almeida vs Oleksiejczuk prediction and best bet
Fight analysis
The UFC is not wasting any time by putting Cezary Oleksiejczuk up against a dangerous Muay Thai striker in Cesar Almeida in a fight that should go a long way in telling fans what to expect from him.
This is a fight he can just as easily lose as he can win, and while Almeida’s terrible takedown defense is a problem, Oleksiejczuk will have to go through some fire to exploit that vulnerability.
Oleksiejczuk is coming off a sensational 36-second win over Theo Haig in the Contender Series. The younger Oleksiejczuk looks to have more of an upside than his brother Michael, and he’s a strong striker with good grappling instincts, also displaying strong finishing skills with 11 stoppages in 16 wins.
Almeida will have his work cut out for him. If this were just a kickboxing fight, then he’d have a chance, but we’ve seen Almeida struggle in fights against opponents with styles more suited to MMA.
He has fast hands, but isn’t nimble enough to evade incoming shots, and he’s shown a leaky defense and a propensity to get dropped. His ground game is terrible, and while this should be a striking battle, it wouldn’t be surprising for Oleksiejczuk to score a takedown.
Ultimately, Almeida is already looking slower at 37 and is an easy read. Olksiejczuk’s sharper boxing and straight shots will find their mark, and his superior movement will keep him out of range of Almeida’s leg kicks. This fight could be explosive early, but this will be a test the UFC debutant will pass. Oleksiejczuk is the pick.
Best bet analysis
Almeida hasn’t been finished in the UFC, but slowing speed and defensive lapses make him vulnerable. This should be a fun fight where the younger, sharper, and more powerful Oleksiejczuk finds the mark early and puts the veteran away. Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO is my best bet.
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Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk odds
Method of Victory
Almeida
Oleksiejczuk
To win outright
+170
-215
To win by KO/TKO
+375
+115
To win by decision
+500
+440
To win by submission
+2500
+725
Draw
+5000
+5000
Odds as of 12-13.
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Cesar Almeida vs Cezary Oleksiejczuk tale of the tape
Almeida
Oleksiejczuk
37
Age
25
6-foot-1
Height
6-foot-3
185 lbs
Weight Class
185 lbs
74 inches
Reach
75.5 inches
7-1
Record
16-3
5
Wins by KO
9
0
Wins by submission
2
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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