Heavy
The most dangerous phrase floating around the Philadelphia Eagles right now is the “get right game”, and it is being attached to the Raiders matchup on Sunday for reasons that sound logical but break down fast under scrutiny. The Birds are a 12.5 favorite versus a two-win, warm weather Raider team playing with a back-up quarterback in snow-like conditions. Yeah, I get it. It sounds like a stat-padding, relaxing, throw snow balls at the nearest Santa at half-time just to lean into our reputation day at the Linc, but I have also seen many more NFL games than most people have, so I’m just going to ignore it.
That phrase exists because people want relief. They want one Sunday where the offense looks highly potent again, where the noise dissipates, and where the season feels back under control. The problem is that the NFL does not work on these comfort thoughts. It works on repeatable execution and by week 15, teams are supposed to know exactly who they are. Unfortuantely right now I thin we know exactly who the Eagles are.
SCENE SET
Eagles (8-5, 4-2 Home) vs Raiders (2-11, 1-5 Away)
Where: Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: 1:00 pm
TV: FOX
Betting Lines: Eagles -12.5, Over/Under 38.5
Moneylines: Eagles: -866, Raiders: +584
Game time temperature: 28 degrees
That is why this moment matters for this team becuase while time is running out on the regular season, this particular team is still loaded with talent and are the reigning Super Bowl champions.
The offense is not struggling because of opponent quality. It is struggling because it has not established a consistent identity, and the numbers make that hard to ignore. It’s also struggling because the offense has turned the ball over nine times in the last three games with quarterback Jalen Hurts coming off a four interception Monday night against the Chargers.
High Anxiety
Things are getting pretty squirrely around these parts as the anxiety has reached a fevered pitch with Birds’ Nation, not knowing which way this thing is going to go. At this point it does feel more like the implosion of 2023 than anything else, but stranger things have happened. This Eagles team did win a lot of close games last year but they did it while still being pretty buttoned up whereas the last three losses the current team has endured have been utter disasters, culminating with head coach Nick Sirianni being asked this week, one of the most idiotic questions ever uttered, about the possibility of Hurts being replaced by backup Tanner McKee to which the head coach quickly dismissed as “ridiculous.”
Through fourteen games, the Eagles are averaging 22.2 points per game, which ranks 19th in the NFL, but that number has dipped over the last five games, as they’ve only managed to score 16.2 points per game in a 2-3 stretch. That is not what a settled contender looks like in December. It is low third of the league production that almost matches what Las Vegas scores weekly.
Bad Situational Football
The Eagles rank 28th in the NFL on third down, converting roughly 34 percent of their attempts. That is why drives stall becuase this team rarely plays in front of the sticks. That’s why possessions rely on late down problem solving instead of structure.
Early downs have been an issue all season. Too many runs for minimal gain or no gain with an almost 10 percent rate negative play rate. Too many incompletions that immediately put the offense behind schedule followed by a Saquon Barkley run right into the teeth of the defensive line. By week 15 that is who you are showing yourself to be.
And yet, this week is being labeled a get right opportunity for Philadelphia.
Vegas Baby, Vegas
The Raiders numbers explain why.
Las Vegas only scores a hair over 15 points per game, last in the NFL. They are second to last in yards per game with 257.2 and are 24th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 25.5 points per game. They are tied for the worst record in the league with the Giants and Titans, all are 2-11 after 13 games. They have beaten the best team in the league record-wise (Patriots 11-2) and the worst team in the league (Titans 2-11). They fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, a few weeks ago, only ran 30 plays in a 31-0 loss to the Chiefs back in October and their Super Bowl winning head coach might not make it to year two of his tenure in Las Vegas.
Third down defense is a major issue. The Raiders allow opponents to convert almost 40 percent on third down, bottom half in the league. That matters because it keeps drives alive and allows offenses to stay comfortable even when execution is not clean.
The pass rush is limited. Las Vegas ranks 23rd in the NFL in sacks, which creates the illusion of improved protection. Quarterbacks look calmer. Timing looks better. The pocket feels cleaner even if the underlying protection rules have not changed.
Those numbers are exactly why this matchup keeps getting framed as a cure.
But that framing skips the most important question.
Why Would it Work?
If the Eagles offense looks better against the Raiders because it wins early downs, shortens third downs, communicates protection cleanly, and sequences plays with purpose, then there should be no reason those traits would not apply the following week. Those habits travel. Those habits survive different opponents.
But if it works because the Raiders miss tackles, fail to pressure the quarterback, bust coverages, or allow easy run lanes, then nothing has actually changed. The same flaws would likely be still present as the Birds were just not made to pay the price for the same sins they’ve been committing all year long.
Dilusional Comfort
We have already seen this exact illusion play out.
Earlier this season, the Eagles looked right in the second game against the Giants. The run game was dominant. Both Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby rushed for over a hundred yards. The pass game flowed. The offense stayed on schedule. For one week, it felt like something clicked.
Then it disappeared again.
The same issues resurfaced immediately. That is the giveaway. When success only shows up under ideal conditions, it is not a fix. It is a flash because of the ineptitude of the opponent.
This is where the calendar tightens the pressure.
The Eagles face Washington twice in the final four games, with Buffalo mixed in between. That kind of schedule invites assumptions. It invites the idea that there is margin. That is exactly how teams convince themselves that their problems are solved when they are only hidden.
December does not give teams time to experiment. It tells them who they are. It’s week 15. If you don’t know who you are by now then that is exactly who you are and your record will reflect that. That’s why there is growing concern that this careening home stretch that started back in Dallas over a month ago feels a lot like the great Eagles collapse of 2023. It certainly doesn’t feel like a team getting better and better each week with the playoffs just around the corner like it did last season.
By week 15, offenses usually do not become something new. They either lean into an identity or get exposed for not having one.
If the Eagles are truly getting right, it will not be defined by points alone against the Raiders. It will show up in repeatable details. Better early down efficiency. Fewer negative plays. Fewer ba penalties. Shorter third downs. Drives that make sense even when they do not end in touchdowns.
If those things show up against the Raiders and still exist the following week against the Commanders, then there might be a reason to have hope that something real is being built.
If they don’t, then the “get right game” was never real. It was temporary comfort. Just remember that this is the NFL. Teams that are 12.5 point road dogs believe it or not win outright from time to time because this is the NFL. There are no locks and there are no days off.
I just heard former Eagle Herm Edwards pick the Eagles over the Raiders today while referring to the match-up as a “get right game.” He should know better than that. “Get right games” can be a dilusional comfort and comfort is how seasons quietly slip away when time is already running out.
PREDICTION: Eagles 34, Raiders 17
