With a win tonight, not only does Sean McVay put his team in position to secure a badly-needed bye, but he also joins Curly Lambeau and George Halas as the only coaches with 100 career wins before their 40th birthday. Pretty good company.
Tonight is equally important for the Seahawks, for whom a loss eliminates any real chance at the No. 1 seed. Here’s the full picture:
Beyond all that, tonight’s game ties into so much about modern team-building, strategy and counter-strategy, especially because it involves two familiar rivals.
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Rams: Evolution of a model franchise
As anyone can see, the 2025 Rams are the envy of the NFL.
“Everybody is in a good mood … it’s a glaring difference when you come into a building like this,” said receiver Davante Adams, rejuvenated after joining L.A. this offseason.
Of course the Rams are happy. They’re top-five in total EPA on offense (first) and defense (fourth). No other team is top-10 in both, and even last year’s Super Bowl-winning Eagles weren’t as dominant, ranking second in defensive EPA and seventh on offense.
McVay is arguably the league’s top play caller. Matthew Stafford, playing at an MVP level, throws to elite receivers. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum lead a rushing attack boasting the league’s best success rate, thanks to an offensive line ranked No. 2 by PFF.
The defense isn’t far behind. Led by head-coach candidate Chris Shula, grandson of the legendary Don Shula, this unit ranks top-10 in any category you choose: interceptions, sacks, pressure rate, yards allowed per pass or per rush …
Things are just as great off the field. General manager Les Snead has gone from winning a Super Bowl with that “F them picks” mentality — the Rams didn’t have a first-round pick from 2017 through 2023 — to building this year’s championship favorite while also positioning for the future. Los Angeles projects to have the league’s sixth-most cap space in 2026 and holds two first-round picks, including Atlanta’s (projected at No. 10).
This team is leading creatively, as vice president of football administration Tony Pastoors explained in 2022: “People will say the cliche, ‘It’s a copy-cat league,’ but it’s a league of evolution.”
L.A.’s latest evolution
McVay’s offense follows that same principle of re-invention.
In 2017, the then-31-year-old introduced a rarely seen style of offense, leaning heavily on pre-snap motion to create advantages on outside-zone runs, play-action passes and screens, making life easier for sophomore quarterback Jared Goff.
After swapping Goff for Stafford in 2021, McVay switched to more under-center looks. Two years later, his rushing attack underwent another change, moving to predominantly gap schemes.
My colleagues wrote a great film review of how his offenses have evolved in 2023, and he continues to adapt. While the league’s top play callers look to exploit lighter, passing-focused defensive formations (think two high safeties) by using beefier 12-personnel formations (one running back, two tight ends), McVay’s already a step ahead.
The Rams run 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) at nearly five times the league average. After they used it for a total of three plays last year, it was hard to imagine their usage jumping to 26 plays per game since their Week 8 bye this season. The next-closest team? Nine per game.
Our beat reporter Nate Atkins explained the background on McVay’s latest evolution.
But guess who stops 13 personnel better than anyone? Seattle, of course. Since Mike Macdonald was hired, the Seahawks are limiting opponents in 13 personnel to a league-low 2.7 yards per play. That’s thanks to a defense particularly adept at nickel coverage, with big-nickel rookie Nick Emmanwori as Seattle’s version of the Ravens’ Kyle Hamilton, with whom Macdonald worked in Baltimore.
But is stopping the Rams’ preferred style of football enough for the Seahawks to win?
Seahawks could win this
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object, with the fate of the NFC in the balance?
If the Rams are 1A on the model-franchise list, these Seahawks might be 1B. Seattle joins L.A. as the only other team to field top-five scoring offenses and defenses, as the Seahawks have limited opponents to 17.3 points per game (second-fewest) while averaging 28.9 of their own (fifth-most).
Sam Darnold is at least an above-average quarterback (No. 5 in our 2025 QB rankings), Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing like the league’s best receiver and Seattle’s rebuilt offensive line is No. 10 in PFF’s rankings.
Tonight, this defense should get back the full services of Pro Bowl free safety Julian Love, who’ll improve a unit already deflecting and intercepting passes at top-five rates. It also has the NFL’s fourth-most sacks, thanks to the league’s best defensive tackle duo, Leonard Williams and sophomore Byron Murphy.
And while the Seahawks might not have the draft capital of the Rams, general manager John Schneider is a worthy Executive of the Year candidate. He improved the roster while moving on from expensive veterans like DK Metcalf (Seattle’s $71 million in 2026 cap space ranks seventh), revamping that offensive line and putting second-year Macdonald in position for Coach of the Year.
So who wins tonight? Here’s what to watch for:
Seattle’s passing game. It can’t be worse than the four interceptions Darnold threw against the Rams in their Week 11 matchup, which the Seahawks somehow were only a missed field goal away from winning. L.A.’s secondary is hurting without the versatile Quentin Lake, and was recently torched by Bryce Young. Darnold just needs to be average here.
L.A.’s pressure. Darnold is 0-3 as a starter against the Rams, who sacked him nine times in last season’s playoff loss by Minnesota. Making matters worse against the Rams’ talented edge rushers, Seattle’s starting left tackle, Charles Cross, is out tonight (hamstring).
That 13-personnel matchup. Built to stop tight end-heavy sets, the Seahawks limited Kyren Williams to just 16 yards in the final three quarters of their prior matchup, holding the Rams to 2.7 yards per play when in 13 personnel. Davante Adams is likely to sit, meaning the Rams would be without their top red-zone threat and sole WR when in 13 personnel. (Counterpoint: Adams had just one catch in their prior meeting, though it was for a touchdown.)
Rams run defense. Seattle’s offense is in a funk, as Michael-Shawn Dugar detailed here, and hasn’t been able to rely on a run game that averaged 2.8 yards per carry against the Colts last week. The Rams stop the run as well as anyone, and if Ken Walker III continues to struggle, a one-dimensional Seahawks offense could see edge rushers like Jared Verse wreak havoc.
A game this tight could again come down to special teams. That’s where Seattle has the biggest advantage, ranking third in special teams EPA (Rams rank 30th). Kicker Jason Myers went 6-for-6 on Sunday, while midseason acquisition Rashid Shaheed has made valuable plays as a returner and receiver.
Seattle outgained the Rams by 165 yards in their last meeting, and while I’m deeply concerned about Seattle lacking left tackle Cross, L.A.’s loss of Adams allows the Seahawks’ championship-caliber defense to focus on Nacua. If Darnold is average, he and his strong receivers should expose a beatable secondary in Seattle’s noisy Lumen Field.
BetMGM has Seattle as a 1.5-point favorite, and that’s how I’m leaning — though the rain makes it difficult to project this one. Our beat reporters explained their predictions here, with both taking the Rams. Over to Dianna for a brief note.
What Dianna’s Hearing: An unexpected headline
The laundry that litters NFL fields every Sunday is seemingly never ending. But being flagged for boogers? That would’ve been a new one.
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown said officials warned him and his teammates to knock off their booger-flicking celebration Sunday against the Rams. On Detroit’s opening drive, St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs all debuted the move, and that was apparently enough for the crew.
“What is bad about that?” St. Brown asked on his podcast this week. “Is that disrespectful? Is that derogatory?”
I’ll have a front-row seat in Minnesota one week from today as the sideline reporter when the Lions face the Vikings on Netflix. In the meantime, I may do a little digging to see what, exactly, the league took issue with — or what other creative ideas Detroit’s skill players have queued up next.
Back to you, Jacob.
Extra Points
👋 Quinn Ewers? Meet the Dolphins’ starting quarterback, once the No. 1 high school prospect in the country.
📊 QB Tiers, revisited. Mike Sando re-evaluated his 2025 Quarterback Tiers during a year of disappointment for three of the league’s elite passers.
🎯 Vic’s Picks. My colleague Vic Tafur picked against the spread for every Week 16 game, and has me tempted to start Tyler Shough in fantasy.
🚫 Bad look. Bears President/CEO Kevin Warren put himself in the news, when all of Chicago is focused on the Week 16 game against Green Bay. Not idea.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Our investigation into PFF grades.
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