A tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean shows signs of organizing as it makes its way west toward the Caribbean Sea.
Tracking a new tropical wave
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva appeared live on the AccuWeather Network on Oct. 15 to provide an updated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and to share insights on a newly developing tropical wave off the coast of Africa.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season might have at least one more trick up its sleeve.
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean shows signs of organizing as it makes its way west toward the Caribbean Sea, forecasters said Oct. 17.
“Interests in the Caribbean from Jamaica to Puerto Rico should monitor this tropical wave in the coming days,” said meteorologist Ryan Maue in an Oct. 17 Substack post.
If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It would likely get the name Melissa.
October hurricane forecast update
According to the National Hurricane Center, in a forecast released on the morning of Oct. 17, “A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
“Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week,” the hurricane center said.
Caribbean is primed for storm formation
Some computer models show a tropical storm or hurricane forming in the Caribbean Sea next week. “Atmospheric conditions are primed for a storm to form in the Caribbean,” said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva in an email to USA TODAY.
“The waters are exceptionally warm since the Caribbean has not been disturbed by a single tropical storm or hurricane so far this season,” DaSilva said. “We do not expect much disruptive wind shear in the region early next week. This tropical wave could rapidly organize into a tropical storm or hurricane next week.”
He continued: “Roughly 12% of the Atlantic hurricane season is left, climatologically speaking, but no one should let their guard down. The return of La Niña conditions can lead to atmospheric patterns that are conducive for late-season storms.”
How rare are late-season hurricane strikes in the U.S.?
Hurricane hits on the United States are unusual this time of year.
“Only about a dozen hurricanes in the 175-year hurricane history books have struck the mainland U.S. after October 22nd, or about once every 15 years,” WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry wrote in a Substack post. “So it’s not that it never happens, but it’s a once-in-a-blue-moon event when it does.”
Unfortunately for Florida, however, Lowry said, those late-season hurricanes that do target the USA usually take aim at the Sunshine State.
“Of the dozen hurricanes to have struck the mainland U.S. after October 22nd, about 2 in 3 made landfall in Florida,” he wrote.
Subtropical storm in the North Atlantic?
Elsewhere, a nontropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of the northeast United States, the hurricane center said: “There is a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early next week.”
Lowry said that for now, odds are low the system transitions into a subtropical system, and it’s expected to move east over open water and pose no threat to land.
