The Nevada football team hosts Boise State on Friday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game against the Broncos with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Boise State (5-2, 3-0 MW) at Nevada (1-6, 0-3)
When: Friday, 7 p.m.
Where: Mackay Stadium (capacity 27,000)
Surface: FieldTurf
Weather: High of 71; low of 40; 10 percent chance of rain
TV/Radio: CBS Sports Network/105.7 FM (also on the Varsity Network)
Online: None
Betting line: Boise State favored by 21.5; total of 50.5
All-time series: Boise State leads, 32-14
Last matchup: Boise State won, 28-21, on Nov. 9, 2024 (in Boise)
Three keys to the game
1. More balance on offense: Nevada has seen its pass game tick up since true freshman quarterback Carter Jones was inserted into the lineup, but the Wolf Pack run game has dissolved. Nevada ran for at least 200 yards in three straight games before posting totals of 129, 60 and 55 in each of the last three. Part of that is playing against better defensive lines with those games against Fresno State, San Diego State and New Mexico. But part of it is a result of taking Chubba Purdy’s talented legs out from under center. The move to Jones was still worthwhile, but Nevada must add some balance back to its offense after rushing for just 115 yards the last two outings. That’s especially true against a Boise State pass rush that is elite but a run defense that has been vulnerable with the Broncos allowing 4.7 yards per carry.
2. Make Maddux beat you (with arm): Boise State also will try and establish the run, and likely be successful. The Broncos average 205.6 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Nevada needs to make Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen win with his arm, which was the goal last year when the Pack played the Broncos to a seven-point game as a 22.5-point underdog. Madsen struggled in that one, completing 9-of-20 passes for 119 yards with a touchdown and interception (two more picks were controversially waived off). If Nevada can slow down Boise State’s run game – 150 yards or fewer – and make Madsen beat it with his arm, the Pack could stay close. And we emphasis with his arm. Nevada’s been prone to off-schedule quarterback scrambles and can’t allow Maddux to pick up first downs on third-and-long after he rushed for 58 yards (second most in his career) against the Pack last year.
3. Channel spirit of 2010 team: In attendance for the game will be much of Nevada’s historic 2010 team that knocked off Boise State as a sizable underdog that season. The Wolf Pack was a 14-point underdog in 2010 and is a 21.5-point underdog Friday. Nevada needs to channel the spirit of that 2010 team that is being honored during this year’s Homecoming game as part of the Wolf Pack’s 2025 Hall of Fame class. While those teams were closer in talent – Boise State had 15 future NFL players to Nevada’s 13 – the 2010 Wolf Pack was down 24-7 at halftime and still trailed by double-digits in the second half before rallying for the overtime win. What that team had was belief. It’d be hard to image this year’s team has a ton of that given the Wolf Pack has lost 12 straight games to FBS opponents. But it needs to play with that 2010 team’s spirit.
Prediction
Boise State 35, Nevada 17: The game could go the way of Nevada’s contests against San Diego State (a 44-10 loss) or New Mexico (a 24-22 loss), which are the Wolf Pack’s last two games. Nevada has generally stayed close to its competition the last two years despite not stacking many wins. That includes a 28-21 loss at No. 12-ranked Boise State last year. But the Broncos’ run game is rolling right now with the team scoring at least 41 points in five of its last six games, and there’s not much proof the Wolf Pack can hang with an offense this strong. Season record: 5-2 (straight up); 3-4 (against the spread)
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
