Monday Night Football is upon us and it brings us a very great matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Kansas City Chiefs. Rashee Rice is back for his second game of the year while the Commanders get back both Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin. We will see a mix of passing and rushing success. It should make for a great game with an array of fantasy talent to go around. That provides a fantastic DFS slate for us to attack.
We will first start with dicussing the away team. The Commanders will have Marcuc Mariota starting his third game of the year in place of Jayden Daniels. In those two games, Mariota is 31-48 with 363 Passing Yards, 3 Touchdowns, and 1 Interception. We do not view the drop off from Daniels to Mariota to be drastic. Mariota has been very serviceable and fits the play style that Daniels brings.
The Chiefs do stand 4th best in the NFL versus Wide Receivers. This may make the day difficult on Samuel and McLaurin and perhaps it may favor Zach Ertz. They must effectively run the ball today as they should not want to rely on the arm of Mariota to carry them to victory.
The Chiefs continue their newly surging run of excellence and Rashee Rice is the face of it all. In his season debut, Rice had 7 Receptions, 42 Yards, and 2 Touchdowns. This is all while he played just 41% of team snaps. That will nearly double in due time.
Washington has been a sub-par defensive unit this season. We foresee success in the air and on the ground for Andy Reid’s group.
The highest owned players tonight project to be the quarterbacks and the kickers. Rashee Rice is also up there on the list. We will go against them all. Kelce matches up great in this game. The Commanders are 26th versus the Tight End. They show no strengths whether it is cornerback, safety, or linebacking coverage. Kelce has a 17% target share in total, and in the red zone this season. He is also the 4th highest rated tight end, per PFF. With this matchup, I smell a touchdown.
Rashee Rice’s rest of season pace is insane 😂 #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/NWNCByJLgA
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) October 19, 2025
There are certain players in certain games where you must play them, regardless of ownership. Rice is one of them. His role was blatantly one of leverage in Week 7. By all accounts, Rice is going to be a player of supreme usage. His target share may exceed 30% and he is their premier gadget play weapon. It is probably that Rice scores and the output should be tremendous. We must play him, just not as our MVP.
If we are looking for upside in the Commanders passing game, I believe that it must run through Samuel. As we well know, Samuel is a pure athlete that is will run every route in the book. Deep ball, slant, end-around, rushing attempt, he will do it all. To keep up with the Chiefs, Kliff Kingsbury will have to unleash his trickery and Samuel would be the beneficiary. He is a high upside play is a rather tough matchup. We hope to see increased work in the second half and perhaps we get in space and create.
I firmly see that the Commanders do matchup favorably on the ground. If you read our Croskey-Merritt vs Pacheco Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em piece, you will see how the Commanders matchup great in the run block. Croskey-Merritt should be pushed in the first half and if they keep the game competitive, his upside remains huge for all 60 minutes. Croskey-Merritt is the far likelist touchdown scorer for Washington and I will put my chips on him.
Despite his higher volatility, Pacheco still trends to be the lead back. Hunt will not reduce his load and Smith will only pickup what Hunt leaves on the table. The Chiefs have been pass-heavy in the red zone, but that may shift today. The Chiefs are comfortably favored to win this game. With lacking big-play probability with the Commanders, I find it difficult to predict that the Chiefs will not lead much of this game. That gives more second half work to Pacheco and a good shot at the end zone.
The talk of the town has been Smith all week long. His increased role is imminent. He will not infringe of Pacheco as RB1, but he is a dynamic third-down back that has great upside. Smith is due to see 3-5 Targets as well as 4-6 Rushing Attempts. One big play and Smith prints cash. If the Chiefs break out to a bigger lead, Smith may see those numbers increase. In fact, in a Week 7 blowout, Smith had his workload increase to 35% of team snaps, which is his long-term destiny.
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