The James Madison Dukes (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) and the Texas State Bobcats (3-4, 0-3) meet Tuesday at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the James Madison vs. Texas State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
James Madison won the first and only previous meeting in this series Oct. 1, 2022, posting a 40-13 win as a 21.5-point favorite as the Over (50.5) cashed at Bridgeforth Stadium in Harrison, Virginia.
The Dukes blasted the Old Dominion Monarchs 63-27 as a 3-point favorite as the Over (47.5) cashed on Oct. 18. That snapped a 2-game non-cover skid, and a 5-game Under run. QB Alonza Barnett III threw for 295 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs, while running for 153 yards and 4 more scores against the Monarchs.
The Bobcats lost 40-37 in double overtime at the Marshall Thundering Herd last time out on Oct. 18 as a 3-point favorite as the Over (65.5) cashed. TSU QB Brad Jackson threw for 444 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT, while running for a team-best 48 rushing yards and a score.
It was a third straight heartbreaking loss for Texas State, which also lost 48-41 in OT at home against the Troy Trojans prior to that. In fact, while Texas State has lost 3 in a row, it has been by a total of a 11 points, with only 1 regulation loss. The Bobcats are 0-5 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5, while the Under has a 3-2 edge in the 5-game span.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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James Madison at Texas State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): James Madison -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Texas State +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread: James Madison -7 (-110) | Texas State +7 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
James Madison at Texas State picks and predictions
Prediction
James Madison 30, Texas State 27
James Madison (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive for such a small reward. For instance, you would need to risk $100 to win just $36.36. There is never a reason to risk that much, and it is not a recommended long-term betting strategy.
AVOID, and look to the spread.
TEXAS STATE +7 (-110) is worth playing at home.
The Bobcats have deserved a better fate. In fact, this is a team which could easily be 6-1 just like the Dukes, but a pair of losses in OT, and a 1-point loss to Arkansas State has changed their trajectory. Texas State plays everybody tough, however, and it is a strong play catching a touchdown, although it’s expect this will end the same way the previous 3 have ended — with a narrow loss.
OVER 55.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Over has cashed in each of the past 2 games for Texas State, but be careful. The only reason those games have cashed high is because the Marshall game went to double-overtime, and the Troy game went to OT.
For JMU, the Over cashed last time out, as Barnett went bonkers under center. However, the Under had cashed in 5 straight, so proceed with caution.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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