Arthur Rinderknech v Valentin Vacherot
Shock Shanghai Masters champion Valentin Vacherot continues to shine.
He thrashed Jiri Lehecka in round one on Tuesday with a near-flawless performance that surprised even himself.
That set up a rematch of that Shanghai final with his cousin.
Arthur Rinderknech took the first set of that match earlier this month but Vacherot was a deserved winner as he was certainly the better player in the second and third.
Overall, he created 14 break points, winning three. Rinderknech had only one.
The big difference was Vacherot’s ability to attack the second serve – Rinderknech won 54% of points behind his second deal but Vacherot managed a terrific 74%.
Similar patterns were seen in the first round in Paris with Rinderknech winning just 47% of his second-serve points as he beat Fabian Marozsan in two tie-breaks.
In contrast, Vacherot was magnificent behind his second serve, barely dropping a point, while he also tore into Lehecka’s second serve, winning 70% of points on it.
If the man from Monaco is able to stay in the groove he’s now been in for over a month, I can see him justifying favouritism here.
Daniel Altmaier v Casper Ruud
Daniel Altmaier won for us at 6/4 in round one against Marcos Giron and I wouldn’t rule out an upset here.
Casper Ruud played great in Stockholm but he’s had injury issues recently, retiring hurt in both Shanghai and, last week, Basel.
As pointed out the other day, Altmaier is no mug indoors, conditions which Ruud has often struggled with.
OK, the Paris Masters venue is a new one this year but the Norwegian went just 5-6 on his visits to Bercy across town.
The concern for me here is that this week should mean a lot to Ruud, who is chasing a place in the season-ending ATP Finals. He needs a deep run if he’s going to make it, too, so it’s hard to see him not giving everything.
Maybe his body won’t allow it but I doubt we see a retirement this week.
Altmaier at 5/2 is one for the brave.
Gabriel Diallo v Alex de Minaur
The first two matches I’ve mentioned are both 10:00 GMT starts so it’s worth me also looking at something in the evening session.
I’m tempted by Gabriel Diallo here, who served very well in dispatching Tallon Griekspoor on Tuesday.
His game looks well set up for indoor conditions, as long as they aren’t too slow. Yes, things are slower in La Defense Arena than they were in Bercy last year but it’s still medium-paced at least.
The problem is Diallo is going from facing a poor returner to one of the best in that business.
De Minaur sits third for ‘return games won’ in 2025 and notably broke Diallo four times in their only previous meeting which came in Toronto in 2023.
The Canadian has improved plenty since then and has the potential to keep things close. Over 21.5 games at 8/11 has potential but I’m afraid I’m not prepared to pull the trigger on this one.
