Griffin Wong previews Wednesday’s MLS Cup Playoffs Game 1 between Los Angeles FC and Austin FC.
The Philadelphia Union have already claimed the first major silverware available in American soccer more than three weeks ago after winning the Supporters’ Shield, given to Major League Soccer’s best team in the regular season, but now the quest for the MLS Cup begins with first round playoff series taking place this week.
Only one series has yet to start: the Western Conference 3-6 matchup between Los Angeles FC and Austin FC. Los Angeles has home field advantage, so the series will begin with a 10:30 p.m. ET clash at BMO Stadium in California’s largest city.
The hosts are -260 favorites to win in regular time and -900 to claim a series lead at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Austin is +550 to win in regular time and +475 overall.
Los Angeles FC vs. Austin FC prediction, pick
The Black and Gold finished the season hot, winning seven, drawing two, and losing two after the Leagues Cup break, which, not so coincidentally, was when Tottenham Hotspur legend Son Heung-min joined the team after playing in the European top flights since he was 18. Though he had a slow final season with Spurs, scoring only seven goals in 30 matches as Tottenham slumped to 17th in the table, he has quickly proven that he’s still a top-class player, smashing home nine goals and registering a pair of assists in just 10 MLS appearances. Together with Denis Bouanga, the league’s joint-second leading scorer, he combines to form arguably the most dangerous attack in the MLS. The Black and Gold scored the second-most goals in the conference during the regular season and averaged the seventh-most shots on target per 90 minutes, and they also had the third-best defense despite goalkeeper Hugo Lloris’ mediocre season.
Los Verdes don’t boast nearly as potent an attack, as they were one of just two teams in the Western Conference not to have a 10-goal scorer and finished last in scoring in the conference. Austin’s leader has been 20-year-old American Owen Wolff, the only player on the team to record double-digit goal contributions, but its real strength lies in the back, where Brad Stuver has saved 76.6% of the opportunities he’s faced and posted the 10th-best post-shot expected goal differential in the league. Los Verdes also forced low-quality shots, allowing just 0.1 non-penalty expected goals per shot, the 11th-best figure in the league. However, they ended the season in rough form, suffering a defeat in four of their last five matches and scoring just one goal in each one. Austin has desperately missed Brandon Vazquez, who still leads the team in expected goals despite being out since early July with a torn ACL.
To be fair, Los Verdes’ only win in their last five matches came against LAFC, but the Black and Gold rested both Son and Bouanga in that match. Austin did come away with the win the last time the two teams faced off at BMO Stadium, back in May, but those were fundamentally different teams. In that game, Los Angeles started Jeremy Ebobisse up front, and while he’s a solid player who scored four goals in 876 minutes on the pitch this season, he can’t hold a candle to Son’s talent. Los Verdes also got rather lucky that the Black and Gold managed to put only three of their 14 shots on target, their third-worst performance of the regular season. Los Angeles won every other aspect of the match, controlling 71% of the possession, completing 86% of its passes, and whipping in twice as many crosses.
Ever since Son has arrived state-side, LAFC games have almost been a celebration of his gifts, as he has found the back of the net in six of his 10 MLS games and endeared fans in the American city with the highest Korean population. In fact, Son has been so successful in his stint on American shores that he’s been widely linked with a loan to a European club in advance of the 2026 World Cup, in which he’ll captain the South Korean national team for the second time. Even against Austin’s solid defense, it’s hard not to back Asia’s best-ever player to do what he does best.
Best Bet: Heung Min Son to Score and LAFC to Win (+125)
