PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Can the Defending Champions End Poor Record Against Europe’s Most In-Form Team?

We look
ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA
Champions League game at Parc de Princes with our Paris
Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich prediction and
preview.

• Though they have failed to score in their last four games
  against Bayern
  Munich in the UEFA Champions League, PSG are
  considered narrow favourites by the Opta supercomputer, coming out
  on top in 39.9% of simulations.
• PSG have scored more goals than any other team in this season’s
  Champions League (13), the most netted in a side’s first three
  games since Napoli scored 13 in 2022-23.
• This will be Bayern’s first Champions League match against the
  previous season’s winners since a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid in May
  2018; a result which saw them eliminated from the tournament at the
  semi-final stage (lost 4-3 on aggregate).

Paris Saint-Germain were the best team in Europe last season,
becoming the first ever French side to win the continental treble,
the crowning achievement of which was of course their lifting of
the UEFA Champions League for the first time in their history.

From the outside looking in, it may appear to most that nothing
has changed – they are top of the Ligue 1 table, and joint-top of
the Champions
League standings along with their opponents for this match,
Bayern Munich.

But in truth, they are very much still warming up this season,
having had to deal with a number of injuries to key players that
may be a result of their lengthy participation in a number of
tournaments last season, including the FIFA Club World Cup over the
summer.

Take their usual front three for instance: 11 games into the
current Ligue 1 campaign, Ousmane
Dembélé, Désiré
Doué and
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have combined for just 12 total
starts.

Meanwhile, two of their stars in midfield, Fabián
Ruiz and João
Neves, rank only 16th and 19th respectively for league minutes
this season among their squad.

In defence, last season’s central defensive pair of Marquinhos
and Willian
Pacho have started only two league games together.

It’s clear that manager Luis Enrique is making use of their
extreme strength in depth to give his best players as much time as
they need to return to full fitness before making an inevitable
charge in the second half of the season.

PSG are getting closer and closer to full strength, and they put
out a side at the weekend that more closely resembled their team of
last season, though they still needed a 94th-minute goal from
Gonçalo
Ramos to defeat Nice.

They will need to be much improved if they are to defeat Vincent
Kompany’s Bayern.

Arsenal fans would have every right to disagree, but Bayern can
be considered the form side in Europe at the moment.

They have won each of their first 15 games in all competitions
this season, the longest winning run from the start of a campaign
for any team in Europe’s top five leagues.

At the weekend, despite facing a Bayer Leverkusen side who were
unbeaten in 37 consecutive away games in the German Bundesliga,
Kompany elected to rest Harry
Kane, Michael
Olise, Luis
Díaz and Dayot
Upamecano.

Bayern were three goals ahead before half-time.

They are quite simply obliterating all challengers this season,
scoring 34 goals after nine Bundesliga games while only conceding
four times in return.

This match against PSG, though, is undoubtedly their biggest
test of the season and will give Kompany a chance to truly test his
team’s level.

Indeed, PSG were actually the last side to inflict defeat on
Bayern, beating them 2-0 in the quarter-finals of the Club World
Cup in July. The Parisians second goal, which killed off the game
in the 96th minute, was scored when they had only nine players on
the pitch.

Bayern are looking to win four consecutive Champions League
matches for the first time since winning their first four in
2023-24, while the last time they netted three or more goals in
four games in a row was between September and November 2021 under
Julian Nagelsmann.

If they are to succeed in this game, then Harry Kane will no
doubt be central.

No player at a top five European league club has scored more
goals in all competitions since the start of August than the
England captain, who has now scored 22 times in 15 appearances
despite failing to score against Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga
on Saturday.

Kane could score in five consecutive Champions League
appearances for the first time in his career, while only two other
players have scored in five in a row in the competition as a Bayern
player (Arjen Robben in October 2013 and Robert Lewandowski on
three different occasions).

Bayern will be without long-term absentees Alphonso
Davies and Jamal
Musiala, while PSG will miss Doué and Illia
Zabarnyi, who was sent off in their last Champions League
match.

PSG vs Bayern Munich
Head-to-Head

Paris Saint-Germain have lost each of their last four matches
against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, with this their
longest ever losing run against a team in the competition.

Bayern have beaten PSG the most times in the Champions League,
winning eight of their 14 meetings in the competition (L6). If the
German side win here, they would also become the only team to have
won three consecutive away matches against PSG in the Champions
League (won the last two by 1-0 scorelines – April 2021 and
February 2023).

PSG have failed to score a single goal across their last four
meetings with Bayern in the Champions League; their longest run
without scoring against an opponent in the competition.

Across the four games, they have attempted a total of 40 shots
and hit the target on 14 occasions without finding the net.

PSG vs Bayern Munich
Prediction

Paris Saint-Germain were victorious in 39.9% of the Opta
supercomputer’s simulations. A win for Bayern Munich was close
behind at 36.3%, while the chance of a draw sits at 23.6%.

PSG vs Bayern Munich Predicted
Lineups

Paris Saint-Germain: Lucas Chevalier, Achraf
Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, João Neves,
Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola,
Ousmane Dembélé.

Head coach: Luis Enrique

Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Raphaël Guerreiro,
Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah, Konrad Laimer, Joshua Kimmich,
Aleksandar Pavlovic, Michael Olise, Lennart Karl, Luis Díaz, Harry
Kane.

Head coach: Vincent Kompany

Opta
Power Rankings

The
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic men’s and women’s
football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100,
where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the
best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off this week, here is the Opta Power Ranking for
both sides.

Subscribe
to our football
newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should
also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.