Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Philadelphia 76ers/Chicago Bulls Over 240 (Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on CHSN
This total opened high and is getting higher, a clear sign of an impending shootout. When the number pushes through the artificial ceiling of 240, smart money is willing to cross a line in the sand when typically they’d be looking to go contrarian and bet the under. I’ll follow them here because I think the signs are definitely there for plenty of points in this one.
Both the Bulls and Sixers are scoring like crazy, ranking top-4 in offensive efficiency while Philly leads the league in overall points per game. Both defenses are just average to below-average, and I don’t think either has answers for the top weapons on the court. With a tight spread as well, this should be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of tempo that gets over the big number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kentucky Team Total Over 92.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on SECN+
If the Wildcats don’t get into triple digits tonight, I think they’d consider that a disappointment. They were doing it with regularity last year in the non-conference slate, hanging 100-plus on 4 different cupcakes while averaging 95.8 PPG against non-power conference opponents. Kentucky did lose a considerable amount of talent from last year, but leading scorer Otega Oweh is back to lead some high-level incoming players.
I think they can carve up Nicholls State which lost its top 6 players from last year, so I question their ability to play as a unit this early in the season against this level of competition. Colonels coach Tevon Saddler has no problem playing up-tempo, which was a staple of Mark Pope’s UK team last year, so I see a fast-paced game where Kentucky puts up a massive number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Hawaii @ Oregon -12.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:30 PM CT on BTN
This is a rarity for Hawaii, venturing to the mainland to face a quality opponent so early in the season, and I don’t think it goes well for them. The Warriors almost always start their seasons at home, against non-D1 schools or someone really bad, and stay on the island for the vast majority of the non-conference slate. And when they do come east it very rarely works out for them even in Big West play.
And I really like what Oregon is shaping up to be this season, with Nate Bittle being able to dominate inside while Jackson Shelstad continues to shoot the lights out. And incoming guard Wei Lin should give the Ducks an excellent backcourt. Dana Altman typically takes care of business in these early season home games against non-power opponents, especially on spreads in this range. With the number still sitting below the KenPom and Bart Torvik projections, I’ll lay it here with Oregon.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Purdue First Half Team Total Over 46 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on BTN
I’m a little skeptical that Purdue should be the top-ranked team in the country to open the season. I’m also skeptical of this offense that lacks any true shooting threat from their frontcourt duo of Trey Kaufmann-Renn and Oscar Cluff. I’m also a little cautious of the matchup here, as Evansville will have to be a defensive-oriented team after losing a lot of scoring talent from last year.
But time and time again, one of the most reliable trends in college hoops is Purdue hanging big numbers in the first half of non-conference home games. The Boilers are probably looking to make a statement here to justify that high ranking, and they’re projected for the top adjusted offensive efficiency by both KenPom and Bart Torvik, so I’ll trust that and the history to send them over this big early number.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 30-16 (+7.46 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
